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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Kulikov to the Sabres for Pysyk and a couple picks.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

wow, Islanders are going after Stamkos...
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Like it for the Leafs; at worst he's gonna be a very solid 3rd line guy for years to come.

CBJ just gave him away; Harrington isn't an NHL player and that is evident by the fact there is a waiver condition on the trade. Think it's time to admit that Jarmo is not a good GM (which is weird because he basically drafted the entire core the Blues have today).

Also love reading how all these teams are now gonna make all in bids for Stamkos. Somebody is really gonna make a mistake on July 1. Of all the teams in the mix, I don't think it would be that big of a mistake for the Islanders cause at least age wise he is in the same window as Tavares (but it could be bad for them because if they want to keep JT they're gonna have to pay JT a contract equal to Stamkos after 2018).

With a bidding war, there is no doubt now he is gonna get 10+ million easy with a max term. Does he go for 11 million? 12 million? Anything over 9 and that price will likely be a catastrophic mistake for teams like Buffalo, Toronto and NYR (but lel they're the NYR and they can't help themselves). Yeah he's 26, but it's like these teams just see STAMKOS GOTTA GET STAMKOS OMG and are oblivious to the fact Stamkos has not been the same player since he snapped his leg. He's not a 50/60 goal guy anymore; he's a 35-40 goal guy. Is that really worth 15% of your total budget?

When was the last time one of these mega UFA deals worked out? Hossa? Even then, they are still on the hook for him for until 2021 and have had to lose how many good young players because of cap mismanagement.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Also love reading how all these teams are now gonna make all in bids for Stamkos. Somebody is really gonna make a mistake on July 1. Of all the teams in the mix, I don't think it would be that big of a mistake for the Islanders cause at least age wise he is in the same window as Tavares (but it could be bad for them because if they want to keep JT they're gonna have to pay JT a contract equal to Stamkos after 2018).

With a bidding war, there is no doubt now he is gonna get 10+ million easy with a max term. Does he go for 11 million? 12 million? Anything over 9 and that price will likely be a catastrophic mistake for teams like Buffalo, Toronto and NYR (but lel they're the NYR and they can't help themselves). Yeah he's 26, but it's like these teams just see STAMKOS GOTTA GET STAMKOS OMG and are oblivious to the fact Stamkos has not been the same player since he snapped his leg. He's not a 50/60 goal guy anymore; he's a 35-40 goal guy. Is that really worth 15% of your total budget?

When was the last time one of these mega UFA deals worked out? Hossa? Even then, they are still on the hook for him for until 2021 and have had to lose how many good young players because of cap mismanagement.
I don't really agree with saying cap mismanagement with the Hawks because they consistently prove that they are able to work around their 2 stars' contracts each year by doing what they need to do (trades, letting guys go, trading for rentals at the deadline etc). It's exactly what they knew they'd have to do when they signed them both. If it wasn't working you'd have a point but it is working. They are consistent contenders and that's not changing because they had to trade Shaw and Teravainen. You could say the exact same thing about the Pittsburgh Penguins to a lesser degree. Teams are winning with the pay your stars strategy. It can work.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

I don't really agree with saying cap mismanagement with the Hawks because they consistently prove that they are able to work around their 2 stars' contracts each year by doing what they need to do (trades, letting guys go, trading for rentals at the deadline etc). It's exactly what they knew they'd have to do when they signed them both. If it wasn't working you'd have a point but it is working. They are consistent contenders and that's not changing because they had to trade Shaw and Teravainen. You could say the exact same thing about the Pittsburgh Penguins to a lesser degree. Teams are winning with the pay your stars strategy. It can work.
It goes beyond recent off-seasons and beyond Toews/Kane; the Hawks have been doing this dance since 2010 because they gave exorbitant UFA deals to Huet, Khabibluin, Campbell (a good player tho but they had to move on from him quickly). Yes they vary in talent/importance, but here is a list of most of the players they've had to move on from purely because of money:

- Buff
- Campbell (a terrible contract himself)
- Ladd
- Versteeg (who looked like a legit top 6 guy at time of trade)
- Niemi
- Brouwer
- Bolland
- Leddy
- Shaw
- Teuvo
- Frolik
- Saad
- Sharp

If anything it's a testament to how well the Hawks are at identifying and developing talent. That is where how you win Stanley Cups. The Kane/Toews contracts I *think* just kicked in this year so we will see how dedicating 21 million between 2 players works out in the long run.

Off the top of my head, if you go back and look at the Stanley Cup teams since Lockout #1 , the only 2 really key UFA high ticket deals that payed off huge (meaning said team doesn't win the Cup without signing said player) are Neidermeyer and Chara. Very interesting that both are dmen. yes Hawks won Cups with Hossa, but don't think it's that bold of a statement to say the Hawks still win Cups without Hossa because of how deep their organization was. Hossa prevented them from keeping someone like Buff or Saad (not saying Hossa directly, but saying his money could've been used to lock one of them up)

and let's look at Pittsburgh: all of their really key players were drafted or via trade (like Phil; him being a trade acquisition is key for them because he didn't have a contract signed on the free market attached to him and the Leafs are also retaining salary on it). During their 1st Cup win, Pens biggest UFA was Gonchar (another dman, who'd have thought?) Go look at the Kings, too, they were built on drafting and trading (although the Gaborik and Brown deals are poison to them now). The big impact player who they signed as a UFA on those teams were Willie Mitchell & Rob Scuderi (what's this? 2 more dmen?).


Let me ask you this JM (asking this not knowing if you're for/against Stamkos going to TO at any cost): do you believe in Nylander, Marner, and Matthews? If you do, then you have to expect they are all gonna need to be paid 7+ million themselves in the near future.

By the time those players are 25/26 and maybe/maybe not needing huge contracts themselves (depending on bridge deals etc), Stamkos will be in his 30's with his best days behind him making 10+ million. When the Rielly contract ends I *think* Stamkos will have theoretically 1 more year left and, if Rielly continues to improve like people think, he's gonna need to get paid like the player he hopefully turns into as well. At about that time having 10+ million tied up in Stamkos and his one trick probably will not feel so great. Yes, he provides a certain amount of leadership and experience, but you can sign grizzled vets and positive influence who can teach the young guns how to be pros for 1/4 of what Stamkos would cost. It also removes flexibility for adding depth in future UFA years, too (and at some point they're gonna have to give Rielly other dmen to play with; top 4 or better dmen cost 3.5-7 million depending on the caliber of player).

That's why I think Buffalo and Toronto going after Stamkos is a huge mistake for both teams. Both have exceptional young talent who are all close in age and who will need to be paid accordingly at around the same time if/when they reach their potential. Short term it feels nice and exciting. However, if you believe in your own players and believe in their development, then it's a completely short sighted move IMO

TL;DR version: I'm captain obvious here, but winner's win through the draft, development, and trading; seldom do the teams who "win" on July 1 actually win anything at all.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

It goes beyond recent off-seasons and beyond Toews/Kane; the Hawks have been doing this dance since 2010 because they gave exorbitant UFA deals to Huet, Khabibluin, Campbell (a good player tho but they had to move on from him quickly). Yes they vary in talent/importance, but here is a list of most of the players they've had to move on from purely because of money:

- Buff
- Campbell (a terrible contract himself)
- Ladd
- Versteeg (who looked like a legit top 6 guy at time of trade)
- Niemi
- Brouwer
- Bolland
- Leddy
- Shaw
- Teuvo
- Frolik
- Saad
- Sharp

If anything it's a testament to how well the Hawks are at identifying and developing talent. That is where how you win Stanley Cups. The Kane/Toews contracts I *think* just kicked in this year so we will see how dedicating 21 million between 2 players works out in the long run.

Off the top of my head, if you go back and look at the Stanley Cup teams since Lockout #1 , the only 2 really key UFA high ticket deals that payed off huge (meaning said team doesn't win the Cup without signing said player) are Neidermeyer and Chara. Very interesting that both are dmen. yes Hawks won Cups with Hossa, but don't think it's that bold of a statement to say the Hawks still win Cups without Hossa because of how deep their organization was. Hossa prevented them from keeping someone like Buff or Saad (not saying Hossa directly, but saying his money could've been used to lock one of them up)

and let's look at Pittsburgh: all of their really key players were drafted or via trade (like Phil; him being a trade acquisition is key for them because he didn't have a contract signed on the free market attached to him and the Leafs are also retaining salary on it). During their 1st Cup win, Pens biggest UFA was Gonchar (another dman, who'd have thought?) Go look at the Kings, too, they were built on drafting and trading (although the Gaborik and Brown deals are poison to them now). The big impact player who they signed as a UFA on those teams were Willie Mitchell & Rob Scuderi (what's this? 2 more dmen?).


Let me ask you this JM (asking this not knowing if you're for/against Stamkos going to TO at any cost): do you believe in Nylander, Marner, and Matthews? If you do, then you have to expect they are all gonna need to be paid 7+ million themselves in the near future.

By the time those players are 25/26 and maybe/maybe not needing huge contracts themselves (depending on bridge deals etc), Stamkos will be in his 30's with his best days behind him making 10+ million. When the Rielly contract ends I *think* Stamkos will have theoretically 1 more year left and, if Rielly continues to improve like people think, he's gonna need to get paid like the player he hopefully turns into as well. At about that time having 10+ million tied up in Stamkos and his one trick probably will not feel so great. Yes, he provides a certain amount of leadership and experience, but you can sign grizzled vets and positive influence who can teach the young guns how to be pros for 1/4 of what Stamkos would cost. It also removes flexibility for adding depth in future UFA years, too (and at some point they're gonna have to give Rielly other dmen to play with; top 4 or better dmen cost 3.5-7 million depending on the caliber of player).

That's why I think Buffalo and Toronto going after Stamkos is a huge mistake for both teams. Both have exceptional young talent who are all close in age and who will need to be paid accordingly at around the same time if/when they reach their potential. Short term it feels nice and exciting. However, if you believe in your own players and believe in their development, then it's a completely short sighted move IMO

TL;DR version: I'm captain obvious here, but winner's win through the draft, development, and trading; seldom do the teams who "win" on July 1 actually win anything at all.
Yes Chicago has worked around some bad deals in the past but for the most part they've gotten through that. They are continuously going to have to let guys go though, that's just the game they are going to have to play when they have two guys making as much as they do. They don't really seem to be suffering from it either lulz. Those deals took affect to start the 2015/16 season btw.

I'm not making this about signing UFAa I'm talking about building a team around one or two very high priced stars and working out the rest of your team each year around the cap. The Hawks have success with it and to a lesser degree so have the Pens. It can work. I'm not saying that will happen with Stamkos but it could depending on where he signs. It's a strategy with proven success. Sure in the other two cases the stars were drafted by the team they still play for but that doesn't mean that will always have to be the case.

As far as Toronto and Stamkos, I A) don't see it happening and B) don't really want it to happen either. I'm not saying Toronto can build their team immediately around a star Stamkos and get by on the rest of what they have. Sure they will probably be a low end playoff team but that's not the goal. I want them to stick to the plan, not rush this. I will say though, Toronto may be able to get him for less than anyone else would because of the endorsements he can get in Toronto that he wouldn't get anywhere else. Above all the endorsements he already has.

In general, cap problems are just apart of the league now though. If you're a good team you probably work around cap issues. At least having two stars locked up you know you have that to work with instead of hoping windows line up perfectly before your entire team is due for extensions/big raises etc.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

it would be awesome to see Toronto in the playoffs. hopefully they get their shit together this season
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Another point against the Leafs targeting Stamkos: they now have Matthews, Nylander, and Kadri down the middle for the foreseeable future, all on very team-friendly deals. That new Kadri contract could look very nice in a few years. Given that they've been training Nylander at centre rather than on the wing, I doubt they try to accelerate the rebuild by going after a pricey UFA to become the new face of the franchise.

Stamkos will probably end up in Detroit.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Yes Chicago has worked around some bad deals in the past but for the most part they've gotten through that. They are continuously going to have to let guys go though, that's just the game they are going to have to play when they have two guys making as much as they do. They don't really seem to be suffering from it either lulz. Those deals took affect to start the 2015/16 season btw.

I'm not making this about signing UFAa I'm talking about building a team around one or two very high priced stars and working out the rest of your team each year around the cap. The Hawks have success with it and to a lesser degree so have the Pens. It can work. I'm not saying that will happen with Stamkos but it could depending on where he signs. It's a strategy with proven success. Sure in the other two cases the stars were drafted by the team they still play for but that doesn't mean that will always have to be the case.

As far as Toronto and Stamkos, I A) don't see it happening and B) don't really want it to happen either. I'm not saying Toronto can build their team immediately around a star Stamkos and get by on the rest of what they have. Sure they will probably be a low end playoff team but that's not the goal. I want them to stick to the plan, not rush this. I will say though, Toronto may be able to get him for less than anyone else would because of the endorsements he can get in Toronto that he wouldn't get anywhere else. Above all the endorsements he already has.

In general, cap problems are just apart of the league now though. If you're a good team you probably work around cap issues. At least having two stars locked up you know you have that to work with instead of hoping windows line up perfectly before your entire team is due for extensions/big raises etc.
hmm seems we're talking about 2 different things here.

I never wrote that teams couldn't make 2 stars work, but I am and always have been talking about UFA signings cause this is now UFA season, baby.

Of that list I provided, Chicago traded away a chunk of them largely a result of going crazy on July 1 in prior years because Dale Tallon couldn't help himself.

We will see if the Hawks make the 2 stars @ 10+ mill work; one year in and one 1st round exit. If they never win another Cup, then maybe the conclusion is it didn't work IDK we will see. TBH it doesn't really matter because Chicago had no choice they had to pay Toews and Kane after they saved the franchise. Had to. They weren't UFA guys brought in for vanity reasons or just to win on July 1 like my Flyers or the Rangers do so often.

All I'm saying are teams like Buffalo and Toronto each have their franchise star C and each have supporting cast who project to be All-Star level, and signing another star forward (who has not been the same player since his leg injury and also plays the same position) to a deal the level he is expected to sign will likely cripple the franchise in regards to flexibility and kill any serious Stanley Cup ambitions. don't get me wrong, Buffalo/Toronto will be a perennial playoff team if they get Stamkos, but like you alluded to it's not just about playoffs it's about building a machine who can contend for years. There are not shortcuts to do it that way and Stamkos is a shortcut. Plus, if/when Eichel and Matthews reach star status Stamkos will likely no longer be a star. So it will be a star + a very good top line goal scorer making "best hockey player on planet Earth" money.

This has the potential to be bigger than just "oh, cap problems everybody has them" tbh. There are rumors out there that he could actually get 12 million per. That's 1.5 more than Toews/Kane each, 2.5 more than Ovechkin, 2.5 more than Malkin, and almost 3.5 more than Crosby. IMO Stamkos isn't a Top 5 C or a Top 10 player anymore and he's certainly not even a player who does more than just one thing. There is a chance he could be making the same amount as Pavelski+Couture combined. Don't know about you or others, but I would rather have two 6 million dollar players than one 12 million player who's sole purpose in life is to score goals. The 12 million talk is just talk at this point thanks to Buffalo's GM, but it could be a real thing.

Agreed that your Leafs should stick to the process. Fact of the matter is the Hawks, Penguins, Kings all got good because of the process (+ excellent trading). I have the same hope for my Flyers to just keep drafting, have flexibility, and staying away from toxic UFA contracts.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

No one is going to give Stamkos 12M in free agency, there's just no way to make that work with the cap where it is currently.

w/r/t Chicago, keep in mind that they also have two ridiculous cap-circumventing contracts in Keith and Hossa, and they're still real tight up against the cap. As long as the cap stays stagnant, I think we'll see more and more GMs getting wise when it comes to handing out ridiculous contracts in FA.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

No one is going to give Stamkos 12M in free agency, there's just no way to make that work with the cap where it is currently.

w/r/t Chicago, keep in mind that they also have two ridiculous cap-circumventing contracts in Keith and Hossa, and they're still real tight up against the cap. As long as the cap stays stagnant, I think we'll see more and more GMs getting wise when it comes to handing out ridiculous contracts in FA.
idk Tim Murray may be dumb/desperate enough. Afterall he's the one who put the 12 mil figure out there.

Could be a smoke screen or he could still be bitter about Babcock and he has hubris issues. The way he acted like a bitch after Babcock/Leafs thing I don't think it's out of the realm that he just flat out wants beat the Leafs/Wings to Stamkos.

I think he gets 11 million tbh which is still lunacy.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Wonder when Stamkos signs. Can't imagine it's July 1st. It'll draw out like that Brad Richards foolishness a few years ago.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Filip re-signed for 6x6 :mark: :mark: :mark: :drose
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Filip re-signed for 6x6 :mark: :mark: :mark: :drose
Helluva deal love what Nashville has built.

Best quote I've seen so far:

"...but seriously, can we put this Washington stuff to bed? Caps benefited just as much as the preds did" - a retarded moderator on HF
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Dad Lindros has been elected into the Hockey Hall of Fame!!

Proud
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

People get caught up too much in the raw numbers instead of taking into account that the cap has gone up over the past few years.

Toews and Kane's $10.5 million contracts, which kicked in this past season, represented 14.7% of Chicago's cap space apiece. This season, it'll be 14.4%. That number will presumably keep dropping as the salary cap increases year after year.

To put it into perspective, after going to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2008, the Penguins rewarded Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin with matching 5-year, $43.5 million extensions. At the time, the salary cap was only $56.7 million, so those $8.7 million cap hits were each taking up 15.3% of Pittsburgh's cap. They won the Stanley Cup the next year.

So, no. I don't think the $10 million contracts are a huge deal. It's just a reflection of the salary cap going up more than anything. It may not be as easy for Chicago to rattle off Cup after Cup without those two on below-market deals, but it's certainly possible.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

@RetepAdam. and it's also relative to who's making that kind money, how the contract was signed, and what kind of players a team has that need to be signed. There's a lot of variance.

Don't see that much of a problem with Kane and Toews making that money (I'll still laugh at it and am skeptical to how it will work out, but we will see. Chicago had to pay them, tho). Don't see any problem with Crosby/Malkin making the money they make. I will not see problem when McDavid becomes the highest player in the league. Again, it's not really about paying players via extensions, it's about paying mega bucks to players who hit the market and the success rate.

Because I'm bored while I'm supposed to be working and am curious myself, here are the UFA who singed big deals since 2006 (meaning big money or term over 4 years).

Green are guys who contributed to a Cup win with the team who signed them. In Red are guys who were bought out/traded/waived/went to Europe/retired due to decline in play or injury. Basically, the player didn't finish contract with team originally signed.

2006
- Chara (BOS) 7.5 x 5 (later extended 6.5 x 7)
- Jovanovksi (PHX) 6.5 x 5
- Kubina (TOR) 5 x 4
- Savard (BOS) 5 x 4 (later extended 4.5 x 7)
- Arnott (NSH) 4.5 x 5

2007
- Drury (NYR) 7.4 x 7
- Gomez (NYR) 7.35 x 7
- Briere (PHI) 6.5 x 8
- Smyth (COL) 6.25 x 5
- Timonen (PHI) 6.3 x 6
- Rafalski (DET) 6 x 5
- Kariya (STL) 6 x 3
- Huet (CHI) 5.6 x 4
- Souray (EDM) 5.4 x 5

2008
- Hossa (DET) 7.5 x 1
- Campbell (CHI) 7.1 x 8
- Redden (NYR) 6.5 x 6
- Rolston (NJD) 5 x 4

2009
- Gaborik (NYR) 7.4 x 5
- Bouwmeester (CGY) 6.8 x 5
- Hossa (CHI) 5.3 x 12
- Havlat (MIN) 5 x 6
- Gionta (MTL) 5 x 5
- Komisarek (TOR) 4.5 x 5
- Ohlund (TBL) 4 x 7

2010
- Kovalchulk (NJD) 6.5 x 12
- Martin (PIT) 5 x 5

2011
- Richards (NYR) 6.6 x 9
- Bryzgalov (PHI) 5.7 x 9
- Wisniewski (CBJ) 5.5 x 6
- Leino (BUF) 4.5 x 6
- Laich (WSH) 4.5 x 6
- Erhoff (BUF) 4 x 10


2012
- Parise (MIN) 7.5 x 13 (may have a long term back injury; good luck to you, Minny)
- Suter (MIN) 7.5 x 13
- Garrison (VAN) 4.6 x 6
- Carle (TBL) 5.5 x 6 (including him because he's trash and Tampa fans deeply regret his signing)

2013
- Ribiero (PHX) 5.5 x 4
- Horton (CBJ) 5.28 x 7
- Clarkson (TOR) 5.25 x 7
- Weiss (DET) 5 x 5

- Filpulla (TBL) 5 x 5
- Clowe (NJD) 5 x 5
- Lecavalier (PHI) 4.5 x 5


2014
- Stastny (STL) 7 x 4
- Vanek (MIN) 6.5 x 3
- Niskanen (WSH) 5.85 x 7
- Bolland (FLA) 5.5 x 5
- Orpik (WSH) 5.5 x 5
- Cammalleri (NJD) 5 x 5
- Moulson (BUF) 5 x 5

There is a lot of red on there and a lot of cap circumvention. Those 8, 9, 10, 12, 13 year deals are extinct and those low cap hits can no longer happen. That is more significant than anything else because a smaller cap hit means there is more coin to spread to pay the rest of your team.

Yes, the cap goes up, but some things never change. When you become inpatient and try to buy players instead of developing your own, you will overpay and you won't be any closer to a Stanley Cup (my team being a prime offender of this). Mega UFA deals rarely pay off. When they do pay off, it pays to go after UFA dmen and avoid the flash of star forwards.

I'm just pointing out the obvious, tho.
 

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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Double Post pls delete if you want

but Lindros HOF tho imo :mark:
 
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