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First let me say, I want AEW to succeed and thrive. Two decades of WWE monopolizing the business have warped it as much Nintendo would have skewed console gaming had they been able to maintain their 90% market share throughout the 1990s and 2000s. That said, I've thought that AEW's best chance would be a strong start out of the gate and that they had to have very few misfires. And while the product has been good, it has been hit or miss. World building - such as the video showing exactly what the Dark Order was all about - has come out of order. Using Dark Order as an example, there was no reason for me to care about two generic black masked wrestlers when they showed up. AEW ran the vignettes that began to make me care weeks later, but it's too late.

Meanwhile WWE has gone hard in on elevating NXT to a third, co-equal brand. There are of course two purposes to it. One is to beat AEW, and the second is to elevate NXT's ratings to the point where WWE can secure another gigantic TV deal when the current USA contract ends. In the meantime though, AEW is now beginning to get crushed. And while I expect that they'll rebound upward to 800K viewers and perhaps get a few more wins over the next two months, I think that the bloom is off of the rose for Khan's promotion.

So where does that leave AEW six months from now, or a year from now? If WWE is successful in getting NXT consistently to 1.4 - 1.7M viewers each week, part of that number is going to come from the Dynamite audience. Will TNT move the show or keep it where it is? Will they be happy with viewership that hovers between 250K - 500K per week. And if they cancel it, how long does Tony Khan continue to fund it? I imagine that the three year business model was predicated on getting onto a major cable network and ultimately securing a lucrative, long-term deal. Being reduced to PopTV or Discovery Channel like Impact was doesn't seem an option. Curious what you all think. I might be overreacting at this point, but I don't like the trends that I am seeing.
 

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Realistically it could reach TNA levels when they were peaking, but I don't see them falling as bad as Impact has (due to so many false starts etc, the quality of the product is quite good now) so I see them sitting between Impact now and TNA at it's peak, the only thing that could "end" it, is if the Khan's decide to pull out like the Carters did, hopefully they succeed enough to stay around for years to come to allow wrestlers other options to go.
 

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The Empire will Reign again
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TNT is only paying AEW for production costs and they're sharing ad revenue, a 2 hour block of AEW is significantly cheaper to produce than anything else on TV and it's currently getting better average ratings than the much more expensive NBA on TNT. AEW would have to do fewer than 300K viewers for TNT to consider cancelling them, so there's nothing to worry about on that front.

The problem is on the Khan's side, AEW isn't expected to turn a profit this year and Khan needs to add more and more talent, which means going deeper into the red. They won't be able to support their business model off of advertiser revenue unless they get the ratings much higher. If AEW can't get a paid tv deal when their current one is up and they can't get enough ad revenue, you have to wonder how much money Khan is willing to burn through to keep this thing afloat.
 

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Lets go to the old mill anyway, get some cider!
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There have been 9 head to head episodes, AEW won the first 7 in a row. Was NXT in trouble of being cancelled after 7 straight losses? Of course not, just like AEW isnt either. They were consistently in the top 5 of all TV on Wed up until the past 2 weeks. Plus this last week NXT was coming off Survivor Series where they were presented as the TOP brand in WWE and dominated the whole show.

It was a bad week for AEW in the ratings and NXT was coming off a PPV. They should have won and they did.
 

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I don't think people really understand how low ratings are all over the board right now. AEW drew 663,000 viewers in their most recent episode and that was after a massive drop from the week before. Most of the episodes of Dynamite aren't too far behind some of the NBA games that are being broadcast. And more people are watching AEW than most NHL games that are on.

There was certainly a time where getting between half a million viewers and three quarters of a million on prime time TNT would be a sign that they were in big trouble. But there's more and more content out there and people are watching less and less of the same thing.

I think they're fine with the amount of viewers they have.
 

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I think a long time. Theres a market for them regardless of what size. They very un likely would ever get as small as Impact but even if they get smaller there is a market for them and wwf and wcw both went up and down in sizes over the years. They will only get better and i see 6 years from now the company having vast changes across the board of everything. If a company does not continue to change that is a problem. wwe has not changed in 12 years and it shows. They used to change all the time.

even look at wwf in 96 having key players like stone cold but they was getting there ass kicked from wcw and wwf didnt take off into its new scuess for another 3 years dispite having a good product and roster. even same thing for wcw, Once they got good they didnt grow for a few years. They will push push and try and try and have the proper structure which TNA never had. So i think a long time as theres a demand for something different than wwe. They just have to continue to become known whiuch will take some time and continue to push and change the product


PS I HATE THE NEW VISUAL LOOK OF THIS WEBSITE
 

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First let me say, I want AEW to succeed and thrive. Two decades of WWE monopolizing the business have warped it as much Nintendo would have skewed console gaming had they been able to maintain their 90% market share throughout the 1990s and 2000s. That said, I've thought that AEW's best chance would be a strong start out of the gate and that they had to have very few misfires. And while the product has been good, it has been hit or miss. World building - such as the video showing exactly what the Dark Order was all about - has come out of order. Using Dark Order as an example, there was no reason for me to care about two generic black masked wrestlers when they showed up. AEW ran the vignettes that began to make me care weeks later, but it's too late.

Meanwhile WWE has gone hard in on elevating NXT to a third, co-equal brand. There are of course two purposes to it. One is to beat AEW, and the second is to elevate NXT's ratings to the point where WWE can secure another gigantic TV deal when the current USA contract ends. In the meantime though, AEW is now beginning to get crushed. And while I expect that they'll rebound upward to 800K viewers and perhaps get a few more wins over the next two months, I think that the bloom is off of the rose for Khan's promotion.

So where does that leave AEW six months from now, or a year from now? If WWE is successful in getting NXT consistently to 1.4 - 1.7M viewers each week, part of that number is going to come from the Dynamite audience. Will TNT move the show or keep it where it is? Will they be happy with viewership that hovers between 250K - 500K per week. And if they cancel it, how long does Tony Khan continue to fund it? I imagine that the three year business model was predicated on getting onto a major cable network and ultimately securing a lucrative, long-term deal. Being reduced to PopTV or Discovery Channel like Impact was doesn't seem an option. Curious what you all think. I might be overreacting at this point, but I don't like the trends that I am seeing.
They have years. They are way way above where a start up company should be. So much so many expect the company to be profitable by early next year after Khan family 100 million investment. If ratings fall more then maybe they won't be profitable as fast. TNT not gonna cancel them. Even if they do 500,000 viewers that's better then other programming they have.


One thing people are forgetting is TNT was expecting ratings in 500,000 range to start. So anything above that is still success for AEW right now.
 

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I don’t think they’ll last very long. I think Khan will back out by next year
Lol ya they sell 4-12 k in tickets to each show. Do 100 K or more in ppv buys at $50 dollar price tag and do ratings similar to NBA on TNT(which TNT pays billion dollars a year for). Not to mention according to Meltzer they will be close to being profitable next year. So Khan family gonna close a company that has been very very successful for start up comapny? I know people like to run their mouth and act like every thing is doom and gloom. But do you realize how dumb they sound. AEW has been so far above expectations. They need to fail a lot more to even reach level of expectations where they should be. Let alone being considered a failure.
 

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Let’s put a smile on that face
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Lol ya they sell 4-12 k in tickets to each show. Do 100 K or more in ppv buys at $50 dollar price tag and do ratings similar to NBA on TNT(which TNT pays billion dollars a year for). Not to mention according to Meltzer they will be close to being profitable next year. So Khan family gonna close a company that has been very very successful for start up comapny? I know people like to run their mouth and act like every thing is doom and gloom. But do you realize how dumb they sound. AEW has been so far above expectations. They need to fail a lot more to even reach level of expectations where they should be. Let alone being considered a failure.
Meltzer is trash
 

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They are still doing pretty well in the demo.. Competing against WWE's muscle is quite hard, even if its only NXT..because they have all the money in comparison.. But hey, Impact has survived for so long, despite being god awful and AEW is better in almost every parameter..So all they need to do is keep improving, hire a few more wrestlers, make the deal with NJPW and see where they are in a year..Now is too early for them to panic.
 

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There have been 9 head to head episodes, AEW won the first 7 in a row. Was NXT in trouble of being cancelled after 7 straight losses? Of course not, just like AEW isnt either. They were consistently in the top 5 of all TV on Wed up until the past 2 weeks. Plus this last week NXT was coming off Survivor Series where they were presented as the TOP brand in WWE and dominated the whole show.

It was a bad week for AEW in the ratings and NXT was coming off a PPV. They should have won and they did.
NXT can afford to run at a loss because the company it's with doesn't? NXT isn't an entire company, you know that right?
 
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