Wrestling Forum banner

Status
Not open for further replies.
161 - 180 of 5275 Posts

·
Ilya Smirnov ate my puppy.
Joined
·
4,922 Posts
It's 2019 not 2009. Interest in wrestling isn't what it was a decade ago. No reason to expect anything over 600k viewers. Also, with AEW's "fuck the casuals" attitude, they most likely won't even get that.
Nobody ever said fuck the casuals. Big difference between not targeting them and fucking them.
 

·
Lets go to the old mill anyway, get some cider!
Joined
·
15,626 Posts
Yeah I havent seen anything to make me think they're disregarding the casual audience, if anything they have tried some things to appeal to the casual audience that normally I'm not sure they would have.

Either way, its way too early for anyone to be calling anything. The 1st show hasn't even aired yet, they are going to have build things up totally from scratch and it's going to take time. The fact that they are selling out TV and PPV is a great sign but we have nothing to go off of for longevity sake.

I think they know they are gonna have to appeal to a wider audience and guys like Jericho, Mox, Cody, etc. will help them do that. But they have a whole roster of talent that they have to get over to a nation wide audience, this is not something that gonna happen overnight in most cases.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
24,483 Posts
I'm horrible with predictions, especially when it comes to ratings.

But I've bee thinking at least a million for their debut episode. I'm sticking with that one.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,204 Posts
It’s going to do a good TV number because people don’t have to pay to watch it.

So those who are attendance will be obvious people from the DMV area and surrounding parts.

However those domestically will watch, those who avoided paying PPV but wanted to watch will watch. WWE fans will watch just to see.

Figure everyone who watched NXT will tune in at some point, at least a large portion. Then the AEW-Only fan base, at least a few thousand, few hundred thousand casuals. And then people who just stumble upon it.

They’ll do around 1.5-2M. Cliffhangers will be important to bring people back.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
575 Posts
If I had to give a prediction, I’d go with 800,000. We have to remember the NXT 1.1 million number is without a competing program. So some people will make a choice to watch one or the other.
 

·
Lets go to the old mill anyway, get some cider!
Joined
·
15,626 Posts
What's a number rating wise that would be considered disappointing?
If they did under 750k I would say that would be very surprising. They have over 700k followers on IG and talent like Jericho who has over 3 million.

Supposedly there were 100k people trying to get All Out tickets so even if that's not totally accurate you have to extrapolate out. Impact routinely did over 1 million on Spike and I can safely say the mainstream awareness of AEW is higher than Impact ever was.

Now the hardcore fans are going to likely be switching between this and NXT so that will have some impact as well. From a network perspective I'm sure the eventual expectation is 1m+ every single week and considering the backing and the level they are already at, I think that's pretty reasonable.

So under 750k would be bad. On the flip side of they do like a crazy number like 1.5 million then people will be freaking out and expect Stone Cold on NXT the following week lol.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
22,722 Posts
If they did under 750k I would say that would be very surprising. They have over 700k followers on IG and talent like Jericho who has over 3 million.



Supposedly there were 100k people trying to get All Out tickets so even if that's not totally accurate you have to extrapolate out. Impact routinely did over 1 million on Spike and I can safely say the mainstream awareness of AEW is higher than Impact ever was.



Now the hardcore fans are going to likely be switching between this and NXT so that will have some impact as well. From a network perspective I'm sure the eventual expectation is 1m+ every single week and considering the backing and the level they are already at, I think that's pretty reasonable.



So under 750k would be bad. On the flip side of they do like a crazy number like 1.5 million then people will be freaking out and expect Stone Cold on NXT the following week lol.
Sheesh I'd think 500k or less was bad. But it'll be interesting to see what they get. I know there free shows for FyterFest, Fight for the Fallen, and the hype show for All Out did around 400k each. So I honestly don't know what to expect. NXT doing over a million was hopefully a good sign. Though maybe that's just the power of the WWE brand.
 

·
Lets go to the old mill anyway, get some cider!
Joined
·
15,626 Posts
On a channel in primetime like TNT 500k would be a very low number.

Just with the interest level as high as it has been, I cant see them expecting less than 750-800k viewers. I honestly think that's on the conservative side too. I personally know atleast half a dozen friends who havent watched wrestling in years who already told me they will be watching. The awareness of this is definitely there beyond the hardcore realm.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
22,722 Posts
On a channel in primetime like TNT 500k would be a very low number.



Just with the interest level as high as it has been, I cant see them expecting less than 750-800k viewers. I honestly think that's on the conservative side too. I personally know atleast half a dozen friends who havent watched wrestling in years who already told me they will be watching. The awareness of this is definitely there beyond the hardcore realm.
Idk when shows liie Atlanta are winning awards and consistently getting comfortably under a million views it's hard to know what TV wants these days.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,898 Posts
Some of the people who bought DON on PPV bought All Out on B/R live.
Yeah, we know that 46% of the people who ordered All Out ordered DON. It doesn’t matter on which medium. Since we know numbers were down, we can estimate that only 40% of DON customers came back.

It's 2019 not 2009. Interest in wrestling isn't what it was a decade ago. No reason to expect anything over 600k viewers. Also, with AEW's "fuck the casuals" attitude, they most likely won't even get that.
Nobody ever said fuck the casuals. Big difference between not targeting them and fucking them.
When you break kayfabe you are saying “fuck the casuals.”

Are there even casual fans to target these days?
Of course there are. There are more people who used to watch wrestling than currently watch wrestling. There is also a large floating audience of about 2 million people that tune in and out when big things are pushed.

What's a number rating wise that would be considered disappointing?
I think anything under what TNT usually does in that slot is disappointing. I can’t remember if that’s 1 million or 900k. Meltzer is setting the bar low at 500k, but that is just so that when they predictably beat it they can overhype the achievement.

The first rating should be huge. Honestly, there’s no reason it shouldn’t be over 3 million people. It’s a fresh wrestling show on TNT with no WWE association. That is predictable and WWE should be ready for NXT to get thrashed one night. But if they stay the course and AEW is going to war with what they’ve got, things will turn around really fast.
 

·
Lets go to the old mill anyway, get some cider!
Joined
·
15,626 Posts
3 million? So you think their very 1st episode should have higher viewership than Raw or SD currently have?

Come on, that's not even remotely reasonable. The 1st Nitro ran unopposed with Raw being prempted and only did a 2.5 and that was with Hogan, Flair, Savage, and Sting on the roster.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,898 Posts
3 million? So you think their very 1st episode should have higher viewership than Raw or SD currently have?

Come on, that's not even remotely reasonable. The 1st Nitro ran unopposed with Raw being prempted and only did a 2.5 and that was with Hogan, Flair, Savage, and Sting on the roster.
Raw or SmackDown used to get over 3 million consistently without a big promotional launch. There are so many people out there that are going to see an AEW commercial, trailer or billboard that should be excited to check out wrestling that is specifically not Raw or SmackDown. As of January 2018, there were 2 million fans floating around that tuned in to a dreadful Raw that received heavy promotion. These are people who don't normally watch but follow along.

Wrestling has not only lost viewers because cable is being cut. That's a factor, but it has also lost viewers because it is terrible. People will watch good wrestling, and the only way they will know if it is good is if they tune in and give it a go.
 

·
Roy "Gambit" Mustang
Joined
·
10,374 Posts
3 million? So you think their very 1st episode should have higher viewership than Raw or SD currently have?

Come on, that's not even remotely reasonable. The 1st Nitro ran unopposed with Raw being prempted and only did a 2.5 and that was with Hogan, Flair, Savage, and Sting on the roster.
Exactly some people have the most ludicrous expectations. If you are expecting them to beat raw on their first show, you are insane lol.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,898 Posts
3 million? So you think their very 1st episode should have higher viewership than Raw or SD currently have?

Come on, that's not even remotely reasonable. The 1st Nitro ran unopposed with Raw being prempted and only did a 2.5 and that was with Hogan, Flair, Savage, and Sting on the roster.
Exactly some people have the most ludicrous expectations. If you are expecting them to beat raw on their first show, you are insane lol.
Have you seen their promotional scope?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11,824 Posts
Last Nitro did around 2 million viewers and that was a boom period for pro wrestling in the US at the time.

Raw did average 3 million a few years ago live but that was 40% female viewers, 25% kids under 18 (many under 10 years old). Those aren't segments that AEW seems to attract or market to. Maybe if they sign Cena and the Bella Twins they gain some of those viewers.
 

·
Lets go to the old mill anyway, get some cider!
Joined
·
15,626 Posts
I do agree their promotional scope has been impressive and TNT should be applauded for the amount of push they are giving them.

But still, there is 0% chance anyone is expecting them to beat out WWEs flagships on the 1st week. We know there are a couple million lapsed fans out there who aren't tuning in to WWE but that doesnt mean they are all gonna tune in right away. We are talking 9 years since the last live wrestling in primetime and 18 years since the last viable competition existed.

What I would expect is something big to close the show as they have to be aware that they need to capture as many viewers as possible to keep them tuning in.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,465 Posts
It’ll be 1.4

Screenshot this :)

I’ve been wrong many times before though... and might be this time too.
 
161 - 180 of 5275 Posts
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top