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post #101 of 1932 (permalink) Old 06-27-2016, 06:41 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Yes. Free agency is often bad.

Including players getting traded and/or leaving for Europe kind of skews the analysis since you can still have value as a trade asset, and Kovalchuk bolting for the KHL doesn't mean that his contract was inherently bad. He put up a ton of points and helped get them to the Stanley Cup Final in a year where they really had no business being there.

Also, more specifically to Stamkos, I wonder how many of those players listed profile similarly. Same age/point in their career, same track record of success, etc. etc. Most of those players don't leave in free agency because their teams make sure of it. Or they end up getting traded — like Rick Nash — so as not to be lost for nothing.

Stamkos's situation is somewhat unique because a player of his caliber almost never hits the market with any intention of leaving, and then obviously you have his injury situation. A better measure of what to expect might be to take a look at any players who have signed contracts, including with their previous team, in the ballpark of what his cap percentage will be, and see how those have worked out.

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post #102 of 1932 (permalink) Old 06-27-2016, 07:52 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

@RetepAdam.

Ok fair enough: let's add the names of guys who were key players in getting their team to a Final. We add Briere, Timonen, and Kovalchuk. Does that really make anything any better? Briere was bought out, Kovalchuk would be a buyout candidate, and Timonen was a great addition. A lot of the red on that list remains red because they were dumb contracts.

As for Stammer's comparison I'd say Kovalchuk is pretty much his equal. He was 27 and an elite goal scorer.... and right now his contract would look bad for NJD as he hasn't exactly been setting the KHL on fire. He'd be a 30 goal, 55-60 point guy still on the hook for like 7 more years and he would decline as time goes on. Silver lining for NJD is he wouldn't be cock blocking any young players who need his spot/money, at least for right now.

I guess the question becomes "is Stamkos a franchise player you spend 11 million on?" For me, my answer is hell no, at least not since his injury. He's not 60 goal or 50 goal Stamkos anymore. Those who are under the illusion with that's the kind of guy they think they're getting haven't been paying attention. I don't think it's bold to say he will never be a PPG guy again in his career. He'll still be a 40+30 guy, but in what universe is that worth 11 million?

To me it is telling that Tampa fans adore Stammer, he's their captain, their supposed franchise piece... but they don't want him at a penny more than 9.5. That's mostly their honest appraisal of a guy they've watched and loved for many years, but they will tell you he's not the same player he was. They know something. Also doesn't sit right with me that he was injured and Tampa didn't really miss him at all. He also disappeared in the playoffs and they made the Final in spite of it. How crucial a cog is he to a winning machine?

I expect him to go for 11, and 11 million is 15% of the cap right now. Drury and Gomez deals were each equivalent to 15% of the cap unless I'm mistaken. They are really the only comparable players because that was before the practice of cap circumvention and that throws off deals like Suter, Parise, Richards, Hossa, Kovalchuk.

also ayy lmao Buffalo giving Ehrhoff a 10 year deal forgot about that one
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post #103 of 1932 (permalink) Old 06-27-2016, 09:38 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

In the midst of my boring Stamkos essays, Montreal gave Shaw a 6 year deal @ 3.9 per.

Seems like an awful long time for a bottom 6 guy.

Pretty much the exact same deal we gave Simmonds. Not sure if that is a testament to how questionable the Shaw deal is for them or how sweet the WAYNE deal is us. Probably somewhere in the middle.
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post #104 of 1932 (permalink) Old 06-27-2016, 11:27 PM
     
 
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

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In the midst of my boring Stamkos essays, Montreal gave Shaw a 6 year deal @ 3.9 per.

Seems like an awful long time for a bottom 6 guy.

Pretty much the exact same deal we gave Simmonds. Not sure if that is a testament to how questionable the Shaw deal is for them or how sweet the WAYNE deal is us. Probably somewhere in the middle.
Ridiculous contract.
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post #105 of 1932 (permalink) Old 06-28-2016, 03:11 AM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Missed some trades of note (at least to me) the other day.

Avs sent Nick Holden to the Rangers for a 4th round pick. Sure.

Kings acquired Jack Campbell for Nick Ebert. It's been a rough few years for Campbell, but I still believe!

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post #106 of 1932 (permalink) Old 06-28-2016, 03:20 AM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

With Stamkos, I guess it just comes down to a combination of factors. You're likely getting a 40 and 30 guy, but you know that if he ever gets back to 100%, he's one of the very best players in the world.

For a team like Tampa Bay, who's already firmly in contention, you know what you think he's worth to you, and you can't afford to pay him more than that. But not every team has access to that kind of player. What if you are a team like the Islanders — a team that's in the general playoff mix but doesn't really have much coming up through the pipeline or a history of attracting free agents? Do you just keep holding out hope that you'll sign the right guys or strike oil in the draft and get everything on a workable timeline so you don't waste John Tavares's prime? Or is it worth taking a shot on Stamkos, knowing that there's a pretty good chance that you're going to be overpaying him by a few million, but if things break right, you've got a superstar-level player who catapults you to the next level in a way that you're unlikely to see otherwise?

That's why Steven Stamkos is going to make $11 million on the open market, and I'm not sure it's absolutely a mistake. It's a calculated gamble, and so long as it's a team that doesn't really have another clear path to contention, I don't necessarily blame the GM who pulls the trigger.

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post #107 of 1932 (permalink) Old 06-28-2016, 05:02 AM
     
 
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

The CHL Import Draft starts in six hours. Kootenay has the first overall pick.
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post #108 of 1932 (permalink) Old 06-28-2016, 06:19 AM
 
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

the Lindros trade tree is dead. RIP

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post #109 of 1932 (permalink) Old 06-28-2016, 05:19 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Rumor floating out there that GM Chiarelli is getting another one of his boys and Lucic has agreed in principle to sign with Oilers on July 1.

If true, I bet it will be 6 x 6 at least. Keep ignoring that dire D and G situation, Oilers.
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post #110 of 1932 (permalink) Old 06-28-2016, 07:20 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

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the Lindros trade tree is dead. RIP


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