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post #81 of 1783 (permalink) Old 06-25-2016, 02:10 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

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post #82 of 1783 (permalink) Old 06-25-2016, 02:27 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

wow, Islanders are going after Stamkos...
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post #83 of 1783 (permalink) Old 06-25-2016, 05:03 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

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Nice
Like it for the Leafs; at worst he's gonna be a very solid 3rd line guy for years to come.

CBJ just gave him away; Harrington isn't an NHL player and that is evident by the fact there is a waiver condition on the trade. Think it's time to admit that Jarmo is not a good GM (which is weird because he basically drafted the entire core the Blues have today).

Also love reading how all these teams are now gonna make all in bids for Stamkos. Somebody is really gonna make a mistake on July 1. Of all the teams in the mix, I don't think it would be that big of a mistake for the Islanders cause at least age wise he is in the same window as Tavares (but it could be bad for them because if they want to keep JT they're gonna have to pay JT a contract equal to Stamkos after 2018).

With a bidding war, there is no doubt now he is gonna get 10+ million easy with a max term. Does he go for 11 million? 12 million? Anything over 9 and that price will likely be a catastrophic mistake for teams like Buffalo, Toronto and NYR (but lel they're the NYR and they can't help themselves). Yeah he's 26, but it's like these teams just see STAMKOS GOTTA GET STAMKOS OMG and are oblivious to the fact Stamkos has not been the same player since he snapped his leg. He's not a 50/60 goal guy anymore; he's a 35-40 goal guy. Is that really worth 15% of your total budget?

When was the last time one of these mega UFA deals worked out? Hossa? Even then, they are still on the hook for him for until 2021 and have had to lose how many good young players because of cap mismanagement.

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post #84 of 1783 (permalink) Old 06-25-2016, 05:55 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

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Also love reading how all these teams are now gonna make all in bids for Stamkos. Somebody is really gonna make a mistake on July 1. Of all the teams in the mix, I don't think it would be that big of a mistake for the Islanders cause at least age wise he is in the same window as Tavares (but it could be bad for them because if they want to keep JT they're gonna have to pay JT a contract equal to Stamkos after 2018).

With a bidding war, there is no doubt now he is gonna get 10+ million easy with a max term. Does he go for 11 million? 12 million? Anything over 9 and that price will likely be a catastrophic mistake for teams like Buffalo, Toronto and NYR (but lel they're the NYR and they can't help themselves). Yeah he's 26, but it's like these teams just see STAMKOS GOTTA GET STAMKOS OMG and are oblivious to the fact Stamkos has not been the same player since he snapped his leg. He's not a 50/60 goal guy anymore; he's a 35-40 goal guy. Is that really worth 15% of your total budget?

When was the last time one of these mega UFA deals worked out? Hossa? Even then, they are still on the hook for him for until 2021 and have had to lose how many good young players because of cap mismanagement.
I don't really agree with saying cap mismanagement with the Hawks because they consistently prove that they are able to work around their 2 stars' contracts each year by doing what they need to do (trades, letting guys go, trading for rentals at the deadline etc). It's exactly what they knew they'd have to do when they signed them both. If it wasn't working you'd have a point but it is working. They are consistent contenders and that's not changing because they had to trade Shaw and Teravainen. You could say the exact same thing about the Pittsburgh Penguins to a lesser degree. Teams are winning with the pay your stars strategy. It can work.
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post #85 of 1783 (permalink) Old 06-25-2016, 06:35 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

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I don't really agree with saying cap mismanagement with the Hawks because they consistently prove that they are able to work around their 2 stars' contracts each year by doing what they need to do (trades, letting guys go, trading for rentals at the deadline etc). It's exactly what they knew they'd have to do when they signed them both. If it wasn't working you'd have a point but it is working. They are consistent contenders and that's not changing because they had to trade Shaw and Teravainen. You could say the exact same thing about the Pittsburgh Penguins to a lesser degree. Teams are winning with the pay your stars strategy. It can work.
It goes beyond recent off-seasons and beyond Toews/Kane; the Hawks have been doing this dance since 2010 because they gave exorbitant UFA deals to Huet, Khabibluin, Campbell (a good player tho but they had to move on from him quickly). Yes they vary in talent/importance, but here is a list of most of the players they've had to move on from purely because of money:

- Buff
- Campbell (a terrible contract himself)
- Ladd
- Versteeg (who looked like a legit top 6 guy at time of trade)
- Niemi
- Brouwer
- Bolland
- Leddy
- Shaw
- Teuvo
- Frolik
- Saad
- Sharp

If anything it's a testament to how well the Hawks are at identifying and developing talent. That is where how you win Stanley Cups. The Kane/Toews contracts I *think* just kicked in this year so we will see how dedicating 21 million between 2 players works out in the long run.

Off the top of my head, if you go back and look at the Stanley Cup teams since Lockout #1 , the only 2 really key UFA high ticket deals that payed off huge (meaning said team doesn't win the Cup without signing said player) are Neidermeyer and Chara. Very interesting that both are dmen. yes Hawks won Cups with Hossa, but don't think it's that bold of a statement to say the Hawks still win Cups without Hossa because of how deep their organization was. Hossa prevented them from keeping someone like Buff or Saad (not saying Hossa directly, but saying his money could've been used to lock one of them up)

and let's look at Pittsburgh: all of their really key players were drafted or via trade (like Phil; him being a trade acquisition is key for them because he didn't have a contract signed on the free market attached to him and the Leafs are also retaining salary on it). During their 1st Cup win, Pens biggest UFA was Gonchar (another dman, who'd have thought?) Go look at the Kings, too, they were built on drafting and trading (although the Gaborik and Brown deals are poison to them now). The big impact player who they signed as a UFA on those teams were Willie Mitchell & Rob Scuderi (what's this? 2 more dmen?).


Let me ask you this JM (asking this not knowing if you're for/against Stamkos going to TO at any cost): do you believe in Nylander, Marner, and Matthews? If you do, then you have to expect they are all gonna need to be paid 7+ million themselves in the near future.

By the time those players are 25/26 and maybe/maybe not needing huge contracts themselves (depending on bridge deals etc), Stamkos will be in his 30's with his best days behind him making 10+ million. When the Rielly contract ends I *think* Stamkos will have theoretically 1 more year left and, if Rielly continues to improve like people think, he's gonna need to get paid like the player he hopefully turns into as well. At about that time having 10+ million tied up in Stamkos and his one trick probably will not feel so great. Yes, he provides a certain amount of leadership and experience, but you can sign grizzled vets and positive influence who can teach the young guns how to be pros for 1/4 of what Stamkos would cost. It also removes flexibility for adding depth in future UFA years, too (and at some point they're gonna have to give Rielly other dmen to play with; top 4 or better dmen cost 3.5-7 million depending on the caliber of player).

That's why I think Buffalo and Toronto going after Stamkos is a huge mistake for both teams. Both have exceptional young talent who are all close in age and who will need to be paid accordingly at around the same time if/when they reach their potential. Short term it feels nice and exciting. However, if you believe in your own players and believe in their development, then it's a completely short sighted move IMO

TL;DR version: I'm captain obvious here, but winner's win through the draft, development, and trading; seldom do the teams who "win" on July 1 actually win anything at all.

Last edited by El Dandy; 06-25-2016 at 08:30 PM. Reason: spelled Rielly's name wrong 3 times :mj2
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post #86 of 1783 (permalink) Old 06-25-2016, 07:15 PM
     
 
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

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post #87 of 1783 (permalink) Old 06-25-2016, 09:57 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

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Originally Posted by El Dandy View Post
It goes beyond recent off-seasons and beyond Toews/Kane; the Hawks have been doing this dance since 2010 because they gave exorbitant UFA deals to Huet, Khabibluin, Campbell (a good player tho but they had to move on from him quickly). Yes they vary in talent/importance, but here is a list of most of the players they've had to move on from purely because of money:

- Buff
- Campbell (a terrible contract himself)
- Ladd
- Versteeg (who looked like a legit top 6 guy at time of trade)
- Niemi
- Brouwer
- Bolland
- Leddy
- Shaw
- Teuvo
- Frolik
- Saad
- Sharp

If anything it's a testament to how well the Hawks are at identifying and developing talent. That is where how you win Stanley Cups. The Kane/Toews contracts I *think* just kicked in this year so we will see how dedicating 21 million between 2 players works out in the long run.

Off the top of my head, if you go back and look at the Stanley Cup teams since Lockout #1 , the only 2 really key UFA high ticket deals that payed off huge (meaning said team doesn't win the Cup without signing said player) are Neidermeyer and Chara. Very interesting that both are dmen. yes Hawks won Cups with Hossa, but don't think it's that bold of a statement to say the Hawks still win Cups without Hossa because of how deep their organization was. Hossa prevented them from keeping someone like Buff or Saad (not saying Hossa directly, but saying his money could've been used to lock one of them up)

and let's look at Pittsburgh: all of their really key players were drafted or via trade (like Phil; him being a trade acquisition is key for them because he didn't have a contract signed on the free market attached to him and the Leafs are also retaining salary on it). During their 1st Cup win, Pens biggest UFA was Gonchar (another dman, who'd have thought?) Go look at the Kings, too, they were built on drafting and trading (although the Gaborik and Brown deals are poison to them now). The big impact player who they signed as a UFA on those teams were Willie Mitchell & Rob Scuderi (what's this? 2 more dmen?).


Let me ask you this JM (asking this not knowing if you're for/against Stamkos going to TO at any cost): do you believe in Nylander, Marner, and Matthews? If you do, then you have to expect they are all gonna need to be paid 7+ million themselves in the near future.

By the time those players are 25/26 and maybe/maybe not needing huge contracts themselves (depending on bridge deals etc), Stamkos will be in his 30's with his best days behind him making 10+ million. When the Rielly contract ends I *think* Stamkos will have theoretically 1 more year left and, if Rielly continues to improve like people think, he's gonna need to get paid like the player he hopefully turns into as well. At about that time having 10+ million tied up in Stamkos and his one trick probably will not feel so great. Yes, he provides a certain amount of leadership and experience, but you can sign grizzled vets and positive influence who can teach the young guns how to be pros for 1/4 of what Stamkos would cost. It also removes flexibility for adding depth in future UFA years, too (and at some point they're gonna have to give Rielly other dmen to play with; top 4 or better dmen cost 3.5-7 million depending on the caliber of player).

That's why I think Buffalo and Toronto going after Stamkos is a huge mistake for both teams. Both have exceptional young talent who are all close in age and who will need to be paid accordingly at around the same time if/when they reach their potential. Short term it feels nice and exciting. However, if you believe in your own players and believe in their development, then it's a completely short sighted move IMO

TL;DR version: I'm captain obvious here, but winner's win through the draft, development, and trading; seldom do the teams who "win" on July 1 actually win anything at all.
Yes Chicago has worked around some bad deals in the past but for the most part they've gotten through that. They are continuously going to have to let guys go though, that's just the game they are going to have to play when they have two guys making as much as they do. They don't really seem to be suffering from it either lulz. Those deals took affect to start the 2015/16 season btw.

I'm not making this about signing UFAa I'm talking about building a team around one or two very high priced stars and working out the rest of your team each year around the cap. The Hawks have success with it and to a lesser degree so have the Pens. It can work. I'm not saying that will happen with Stamkos but it could depending on where he signs. It's a strategy with proven success. Sure in the other two cases the stars were drafted by the team they still play for but that doesn't mean that will always have to be the case.

As far as Toronto and Stamkos, I A) don't see it happening and B) don't really want it to happen either. I'm not saying Toronto can build their team immediately around a star Stamkos and get by on the rest of what they have. Sure they will probably be a low end playoff team but that's not the goal. I want them to stick to the plan, not rush this. I will say though, Toronto may be able to get him for less than anyone else would because of the endorsements he can get in Toronto that he wouldn't get anywhere else. Above all the endorsements he already has.

In general, cap problems are just apart of the league now though. If you're a good team you probably work around cap issues. At least having two stars locked up you know you have that to work with instead of hoping windows line up perfectly before your entire team is due for extensions/big raises etc.

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post #88 of 1783 (permalink) Old 06-25-2016, 10:53 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

it would be awesome to see Toronto in the playoffs. hopefully they get their shit together this season
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post #89 of 1783 (permalink) Old 06-25-2016, 11:10 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

Another point against the Leafs targeting Stamkos: they now have Matthews, Nylander, and Kadri down the middle for the foreseeable future, all on very team-friendly deals. That new Kadri contract could look very nice in a few years. Given that they've been training Nylander at centre rather than on the wing, I doubt they try to accelerate the rebuild by going after a pricey UFA to become the new face of the franchise.

Stamkos will probably end up in Detroit.
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post #90 of 1783 (permalink) Old 06-25-2016, 11:30 PM
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Re: NHL Draft and Off-season Thread - Hopefully Patrick Kane Doesn't Go Home to Buffalo This Summer Edition

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Yes Chicago has worked around some bad deals in the past but for the most part they've gotten through that. They are continuously going to have to let guys go though, that's just the game they are going to have to play when they have two guys making as much as they do. They don't really seem to be suffering from it either lulz. Those deals took affect to start the 2015/16 season btw.

I'm not making this about signing UFAa I'm talking about building a team around one or two very high priced stars and working out the rest of your team each year around the cap. The Hawks have success with it and to a lesser degree so have the Pens. It can work. I'm not saying that will happen with Stamkos but it could depending on where he signs. It's a strategy with proven success. Sure in the other two cases the stars were drafted by the team they still play for but that doesn't mean that will always have to be the case.

As far as Toronto and Stamkos, I A) don't see it happening and B) don't really want it to happen either. I'm not saying Toronto can build their team immediately around a star Stamkos and get by on the rest of what they have. Sure they will probably be a low end playoff team but that's not the goal. I want them to stick to the plan, not rush this. I will say though, Toronto may be able to get him for less than anyone else would because of the endorsements he can get in Toronto that he wouldn't get anywhere else. Above all the endorsements he already has.

In general, cap problems are just apart of the league now though. If you're a good team you probably work around cap issues. At least having two stars locked up you know you have that to work with instead of hoping windows line up perfectly before your entire team is due for extensions/big raises etc.
hmm seems we're talking about 2 different things here.

I never wrote that teams couldn't make 2 stars work, but I am and always have been talking about UFA signings cause this is now UFA season, baby.

Of that list I provided, Chicago traded away a chunk of them largely a result of going crazy on July 1 in prior years because Dale Tallon couldn't help himself.

We will see if the Hawks make the 2 stars @ 10+ mill work; one year in and one 1st round exit. If they never win another Cup, then maybe the conclusion is it didn't work IDK we will see. TBH it doesn't really matter because Chicago had no choice they had to pay Toews and Kane after they saved the franchise. Had to. They weren't UFA guys brought in for vanity reasons or just to win on July 1 like my Flyers or the Rangers do so often.

All I'm saying are teams like Buffalo and Toronto each have their franchise star C and each have supporting cast who project to be All-Star level, and signing another star forward (who has not been the same player since his leg injury and also plays the same position) to a deal the level he is expected to sign will likely cripple the franchise in regards to flexibility and kill any serious Stanley Cup ambitions. don't get me wrong, Buffalo/Toronto will be a perennial playoff team if they get Stamkos, but like you alluded to it's not just about playoffs it's about building a machine who can contend for years. There are not shortcuts to do it that way and Stamkos is a shortcut. Plus, if/when Eichel and Matthews reach star status Stamkos will likely no longer be a star. So it will be a star + a very good top line goal scorer making "best hockey player on planet Earth" money.

This has the potential to be bigger than just "oh, cap problems everybody has them" tbh. There are rumors out there that he could actually get 12 million per. That's 1.5 more than Toews/Kane each, 2.5 more than Ovechkin, 2.5 more than Malkin, and almost 3.5 more than Crosby. IMO Stamkos isn't a Top 5 C or a Top 10 player anymore and he's certainly not even a player who does more than just one thing. There is a chance he could be making the same amount as Pavelski+Couture combined. Don't know about you or others, but I would rather have two 6 million dollar players than one 12 million player who's sole purpose in life is to score goals. The 12 million talk is just talk at this point thanks to Buffalo's GM, but it could be a real thing.

Agreed that your Leafs should stick to the process. Fact of the matter is the Hawks, Penguins, Kings all got good because of the process (+ excellent trading). I have the same hope for my Flyers to just keep drafting, have flexibility, and staying away from toxic UFA contracts.
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