Re: Yelli vs. Belli for NL MVP
Bryce Harper in Review
Not a disaster, but things don't look too peachy for Philadelphia and their $330M slugger's future.
Since the season's almost over, I feel comfortable in that his stats won't change too much over time. I think this season on an individual level isn't a failure, but it isn't exactly promising for the future of the Philadelphia Phillies either. Harper was worth 4.5 fWAR and 3.8 bWAR—Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for the uninitiated—in 2019; the both values are not exactly a super appraisal of his performance, as he wasn't elite, but going by the scale of 6-8M per WAR, he lived up to a 25M AAV for this season.
Under both sites, this season was an improvement over his last—a .249/.393/.496 season with an OPS+ of 133 and wRC+ of 134, worth 3.4fWAR and 1.3 bWAR (which is below their "average everyday starter" at 2 WAR actually); however, his hitting took a stepback this season. His 2019 slash line was .258/.374/.505, showing an rise in his average but a significant dip in his OBP and his OPS; not only did his OPS go down, it went down in a better hitter's park in a better run scoring environment league wide. Both his wRC+ and OPS+ went down to 125, which is still a very good hitter and a guy you'd love in RF.
So if his hitting went down, where did Bryce gain all this extra value? Defense seems to be the answer, and that's what should worry Philly fans. Bryce has been a net negative value defender for years. Here's a look at how Baseball Reference has logged his defense every season his career under his dWAR, or defensive wins above replacement:
Code:
Year Age G WAR oWAR dWAR
2012 19 139 5.2 3.5 1.5
2013 20 118 3.7 3.3 -0.1
2014 21 100 1.1 1.2 -0.5
2015 22 153 10.0 9.1 0.4
2016 23 147 1.5 1.9 -0.9
2017 24 111 4.6 4.2 0.0
2018 25 159 1.3 4.2 -3.2
2019 26 152 3.8 3.3 0.0
Provided by
Baseball-Reference.com:
View Original Table
Generated 9/25/2019.
Using that info, Baseball Reference has him logged at -3 wins above replacement defensively for his career, this one merely being 0 wins above replacement on the year.
Fangraphs, on the other hand, has this as a major turning point in his 2019 season; this is where their fWAR total really breaks away from the bWAR total. Under Fangraphs' stat tracking, Bryce has accumulated a defensive value of -25.9 over his career. In 2018 alone he was historically awful at -18.1 and was following a trend of every single prior season except his rookie campaign being a negative in the field.
In 2019, Harper was a good defender according to Fangraphs; cross that, he was great according to Fangraphs, he was the 8th best OF in the entirety of Major League Baseball in their metric. This is a sudden shift in defensive value, shocking really, going from well below average to one of the best outfielders; this should be a great sign!
That's why I don't believe it. If anything, this feels like an aberration, an outlier in the career of a guy who hasn't looked good in the outfield. He did have another good second half this season, going for a .266/.382/.560 slashline with a 137 wRC+; combining his last two second halves create a 127 game stretch in which he's been a .283/.409/.549 with 29 HR and a 149 wRC+, which is the value you'd expect from a 25M player but is only gained through cherrypicking stats.
Bryce has seen his power stay stable, a .247 ISO in both seasons with a 23% HR/FB rate. His walk percentage is down, though this could be attributed to the lineup surrounding him, it hurts his overall value at the plate. His strikeout percentage went up to 26.2% on the season as well. He's not being plagued by bad luck either, his BABIP actually went up on this season compared to his last.
All in all, Bryce is a very, very good baseball player who is being paid like a great player. While he has amazing raw power, he's not up to par with other sluggers while he even plays in a hitter's park with his ~.500 slugging percentage in the new HR era we're in. He doesn't hit for average and he's walking less. He's not a plus defender in all likelihood and is likely to get far worse over the next 13 years. All signs point to Bryce being a solid 2-4.5 win player over the next couple of years, but nothing is showing any indication of him ever again reaching his superstar level ability—one of the greatest hitting seasons ever at that—at age 22.