Yeah just because it's unpredictable doesn't mean it's good, either for the story or for business (:hhh)
And like I said if Punk is to win at the Rumble that's fine, but to then have him lose it at the Chamber would be a bad decision. Giving Rock the title for a few weeks just to put over Cena would be stupid, it would massively devalue whatever Punk does at Mania too.
Chamber isn't going to do nearly as well as the Rumble either in terms of buys so I find it hard to believe they'd put the title on Rock for the first time in 11 years when there is like 200,000 people watching compared to half a million at the Rumble.
I never said it wasn't good (and it is), I just think that the other option is better. And I don't think about the business aspect as I don't benefit from that (although I take it into account when I judge what's likely to happen), I just look at what I think about the story.
I can certainly see your point when it comes to the setup for Rock vs Cena. I guess I think a bit less about that part because I think Rock vs Punk looks to be a so much better feud, but WM is of course what's supposed to be the biggest thing. I still think it works, but it's a good point. If Punk is to face The Undertaker I think that the title is pretty irrelevant anyway.
Your second point is also valid, but you can also see it as what better way to build your top heel by having him defeat The Rock when everyone is watching. That's after all the long term option in all of this.
It's only predictable of you have been on the web for about 24 hours, in each 7 days, in each 4 weeks of last 6 months of your life.
Rock needs to establish his credibility back after being away again for so long and one great way to do it is to win the title in his first match back.
Punk has nothing to lose since he gained nothing anyway in the past 14 months that they have pushed him to the galaxies other threatening Big Sexy's record of being the greatest box office king in the companies' history.
I don't think it has anything to do with reading things on the Internet. Quite the contrary in this case actually. When The Rock said he would face the champ at RR my immediate thought was "OK, they are making The Rock champ at RR". If it wasn't for some things I've read on the Internet I wouldn't think there's any chance of Rock losing at RR. Now I at least think there's a few percentage chance of him not winning right away. Still not much, but it's there.
And I don't think The Rock has any lack in credibility. He beat Cena at WM and remains the most popular guy they can realistically have on Raw.
I agree that Punk doesn't have anything to lose, but he could have a lot more to win by actually doing the unexpected and beat Rock the first time they fight. That would give him a whole new level of credibility as top heel, which would then make him able to give a bigger rub to whatever face he's going to put over in the future. As said, I don't think it will happen and I don't have any problems with The Rock winning either (I'm a Rock fan as pretty much everyone else), I just thought it would be a good and unexpected variant.