The Bucks have played the Heat tougher than most teams in the NBA since the Big 3 formed but as we've learned in the past from the Celtics & Bulls, regular season success against the Heat doesn't really translate to the playoffs. Personally I think the Heat/Bucks series will be closer than most people expect.
I don't think the Bucks win, in fact, I'd be shocked if they win more than one game but I don't think that will stop it from being somewhat competitive. However, this Heat/Bucks series reminds me of Bulls/Pacers in 2011. The Bulls were a 60+ win team facing off against 37 win team that most people expected them to sweep rather easily but instead we got a hard fought five game series where almost every game came down to the wire. With the Heat/Bucks, the Heat are a 60+ win team facing off against a 38 win team that most people expect them to sweep rather easily but the rest has yet to happen...will history repeat itself?