Re: UEFA Champions/Europa League 2012-13 Thread
My post might sound a little strange, but it actually makes perfect sense. It's what I've been saying all week to people who insist that they 'knew' that Bradford were going to beat us. Because if they truly thought that was going to happen, they would have put money on it, given the very long odds offered.
As I said, if you genuinely think that Celtic are more likely to progress to the quarter finals than Arsenal, then there's money to be made. Place your bets properly and if neither Arsenal or Celtic progress, you break even through using Bayern as insurance. If both Celtic and Arsenal go through, you make profit due to Celtic's long odds. If Celtic go through and Arsenal don't, then you make a killing. If Arsenal go through and Celtic fail, then you're fucked, but hey, according to you that's very unlikely.
I'll even go to the trouble of giving you an example of how it works. So using Skybet's odds of 4/1 for Celtic to go through, and 4/11 for Bayern to go through, here's how you'd do it. Put $20 on Celtic at 4/1, and $55 on Bayern at 4/11. Here are the profits/losses based on the permutations:
Celtic and Munich qualify is an $100 profit.
Celtic and Arsenal qualify is a $25 profit.
Juventus and Munich qualify breaks even.
Juventus and Arsenal qualify gives a loss of $75.
So given that both you Seabs and Posterizer think that Celtic and Bayern going through is more likely than Juventus and Arsenal, then get on that bet, because if a more likely outcome pays more than the stake, then surely you'd be stupid not to take that gamble. I bet neither of you do though cause you are both lying to yourselves and trying to spin a quirky narrative about Arsenal.
EDIT - I also meant to say that it doesn't even need to be a $75 stake you put up. If you didn't want to gamble that sort of money, just divide each figure by 5, and the thing still works out. Put $4 on Celtic and $11 on Bayern. So a $15 stake potentially paying out $20 for in your eyes the more likely outcome.
Last edited by #dealwithit; 12-21-2012 at 07:19 AM.