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Old 12-21-2012, 06:13 AM   #2811 (permalink)
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Default Re: UEFA Champions/Europa League 2012-13 Thread

My post might sound a little strange, but it actually makes perfect sense. It's what I've been saying all week to people who insist that they 'knew' that Bradford were going to beat us. Because if they truly thought that was going to happen, they would have put money on it, given the very long odds offered.

As I said, if you genuinely think that Celtic are more likely to progress to the quarter finals than Arsenal, then there's money to be made. Place your bets properly and if neither Arsenal or Celtic progress, you break even through using Bayern as insurance. If both Celtic and Arsenal go through, you make profit due to Celtic's long odds. If Celtic go through and Arsenal don't, then you make a killing. If Arsenal go through and Celtic fail, then you're fucked, but hey, according to you that's very unlikely.

I'll even go to the trouble of giving you an example of how it works. So using Skybet's odds of 4/1 for Celtic to go through, and 4/11 for Bayern to go through, here's how you'd do it. Put $20 on Celtic at 4/1, and $55 on Bayern at 4/11. Here are the profits/losses based on the permutations:

Celtic and Munich qualify is an $100 profit.
Celtic and Arsenal qualify is a $25 profit.
Juventus and Munich qualify breaks even.
Juventus and Arsenal qualify gives a loss of $75.

So given that both you Seabs and Posterizer think that Celtic and Bayern going through is more likely than Juventus and Arsenal, then get on that bet, because if a more likely outcome pays more than the stake, then surely you'd be stupid not to take that gamble. I bet neither of you do though cause you are both lying to yourselves and trying to spin a quirky narrative about Arsenal.

EDIT - I also meant to say that it doesn't even need to be a $75 stake you put up. If you didn't want to gamble that sort of money, just divide each figure by 5, and the thing still works out. Put $4 on Celtic and $11 on Bayern. So a $15 stake potentially paying out $20 for in your eyes the more likely outcome.

Last edited by #dealwithit : 12-21-2012 at 06:19 AM.
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Old 12-21-2012, 06:20 AM   #2812 (permalink)
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Default Re: UEFA Champions/Europa League 2012-13 Thread

i got money on bayern winning the whole thing @ 12.50 before the tourney began. also had money on villa being top scorer though
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Old 12-21-2012, 07:02 AM   #2813 (permalink)
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Default Re: UEFA Champions/Europa League 2012-13 Thread

I think Arsenal vs Bayern sounds better on paper than it actually will be on the pitch. Bayern are far superior to Arsenal in all areas of the pitch and should go through quite comfortabely imo.

If Arsenal end up going through, then i'll be the first to admit i'm wrong, but i can't see past Bayern at all in this tie.
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Old 12-21-2012, 07:33 AM   #2814 (permalink)
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Default Re: UEFA Champions/Europa League 2012-13 Thread

Given that Chelsea are out and I have little to cling to, can I still cling to a Chelsea player having scored the best goal? Or have there been any better?

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Old 12-21-2012, 07:40 AM   #2815 (permalink)
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Default Re: UEFA Champions/Europa League 2012-13 Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by I Curry I View Post
Given that Chelsea are out and I have little to cling to, can I still cling to a Chelsea player having scored the best goal? Or have there been any better?



Oscar's was still pretty sweet though
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Old 12-21-2012, 08:16 AM   #2816 (permalink)
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Default Re: UEFA Champions/Europa League 2012-13 Thread

http://www.uefa.com/uefa/footballfir...d=1908817.html

the key part:

Quote:
Málaga CF (ESP): The club is excluded from participating in the next UEFA club competition for which it would otherwise qualify in the next four seasons (i.e. 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16, 2016/17). In addition, Málaga will be excluded from a subsequent UEFA competition for which it would otherwise qualify (in the next four seasons) if it does not prove, by 31 March 2013, that it has no overdue payables towards football clubs or towards employees and/or social/tax authorities, in accordance with the UEFA Club Licensing and Financial Fair Play Regulations.

Málaga has also been fined €300,000. The prize money withheld on 11 September 2012 (as a conservatory measure) will be released.
jesus that's a buttfucking and a half. 5 other clubs suspended too.
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Old 12-21-2012, 08:23 AM   #2817 (permalink)
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Default Re: UEFA Champions/Europa League 2012-13 Thread

Which are the other 5 clubs?
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Old 12-21-2012, 08:26 AM   #2818 (permalink)
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Default Re: UEFA Champions/Europa League 2012-13 Thread

hnk hajduk split, nk osijek, rapid bucharest, dinamo bucharest, fk partizan. basically all due to overdue payments that need to be satisfied to creditors by march 31st 2013 or the ban is upheld.

fk vojvodina and arsenal kyiv have been fined. lech poznan have no case to answer.
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Old 12-21-2012, 08:46 AM   #2819 (permalink)
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Default Re: UEFA Champions/Europa League 2012-13 Thread

If Madrid and Barcelona win there quarter finals in the Copa Del Rey Madird could have a fixture list something like this:

Jan 29/30 Barca - Copa Del Rey
Feb 13 Man Utd - CL
Feb 26/27 Barca - Copa del Rey
Mar 2/3 Barca - League
Mar 5 - Man Utd - CL


Thats scary!
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Old 12-21-2012, 08:55 AM   #2820 (permalink)
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Default Re: UEFA Champions/Europa League 2012-13 Thread

Gonna be some mad scramble now for Isco
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