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MLB: ONE WEEK!

126K views 4K replies 126 participants last post by  DesolationRow 
#1 ·
The Cubs are so awful.

Discuss.
 
#2,891 ·
My thoughts on the King Felix deal?

Grant Brisbee over at McCovey Chronicles speaks for me:

"Mariners, Felix Hernandez reach reported deal that blows Matt Cain's extension away...

I blame the Dodgers. You should too.

Last year at this time, this was Matt Cain Chronicles. Matt Cain this, Matt Cain that. Will Matt Cain be a Dodger? Matt Cain will probably be a Dodger. We're going to lose 85 games because we didn't re-sign Carlos Beltran, and then Matt Cain is going to leave for the Dodgers after the season. Oh, no. No no no no no no.

At least, that's what I was secretly thinking. The Giants hadn't come that close to a popular player leaving through free agency since Barry Bonds, and even then, everyone knew he was coming back. But Matt Cain signed a deal for a lot of money. Enough money to make a fan nervous in the middle of all the elation and relief.

Lookie here, though:

Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has agreed to a seven-year, $175 million contract that should be finalized before spring training, making him the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history, a person familiar with the contract details told USA TODAY Sports.

There are differences between Felix Hernandez and Matt Cain. The first is that Cain was 27 when he signed his extension, Felix will be … a few days short of 27 when this season starts. Hernandez has been worth 31.5 wins over his eight seasons, with a 127 ERA+, 1,620 innings pitched, a perfect game, and an impeccable record of health, whereas Cain has been worth 29.2 wins over his eight seasons, with a 124 ERA+, a perfect game, and an impeccable record of health over his 1,536 innings pitched.

Okay, they're pretty freaking similar.

Last year, Cain agreed to a five year, $112.5 million extension that started after the 2012 season, with a team option for the sixth year. This is what I wrote at the time:

So now with the fears banished, we can step back and look at the contract somewhat objectively. It's six years. That's not too bad, considering. It's certainly not a hometown discount. I think the seven-year deal for pitchers is mostly dead. Sort of think that Barry Zito killed it. He just keeps proving his value over and over and over.

And from just this offseason:

I could see Cain having signed for six years, $160 million on the open market. Heck, I can see him signing for seven years, $190 million. Not because he's so much better than Greinke, but because the Dodgers would have been willing to pay whatever it took. They would have been like a seven-year-old saying "Infinity plus one! Infinity plus a million!" The chance to weaken a blood rival, both on the field and in the public-relations arena, would have been a once-in-a-decade chance, and it would have happened to come up when the new Dodgers owners were willing and eager to make a point.

When I wrote that, I wondered if I was being too hyperbolic, if the Dodgers really would have spent that much. After all, no right-hander had ever come close to those numbers. And now, with the billion-dollar Dodgers scaring the lemons off every single team when it comes to their young franchise players, a team like the Mariners is willing to blow past what Matt Cain got just a year ago.

Which is all to say, the Giants locked up their young pitchers at exactly the right time. A couple of weeks after the Giants locked up Cain, they really locked up Madison Bumgarner. And the the Dodgers sale went through. Then they literally flew Zack Greinke to the moon in a space shuttle for contract talks, just to show they could. Literally. Everything went kind of goofy after that.

The result is a Felix Hernandez contract that's two years longer and $63 million more than a Matt Cain contract. That's kind of a big deal.

We'll see what these contracts look like in 2015, so it's not time to suggest the Giants have the greatest contract in the history of professional contracts. But it's almost certain the Giants saved tens of millions of dollars by not letting Cain get to free agency this offseason, and considering what Hernandez got, they could have saved scores of millions.

Also, Matt Cain."
 
#2,893 ·
-2.4 WAR over the past two seasons, and a speed guy who’ll be 35! Awesome, Marlins!

 
#2,895 ·
I don't think the Giants will repeat. I'm thinking Nationals win it or Dodgers.
 
#2,898 ·
I don't think the Giants will repeat. I'm thinking Nationals win it or Dodgers.
Eww. Fuck that.

The odds of repeating, in truth, are always fairly remote. But not impossible.

One thing's for sure, if we aren't going to make it, I hope one of our fallback priorities is to, if nothing else, block the Dodgers from making it. They can't be allowed to even sniff a World Championship. And it's only good for baseball. Don't want people thinking you can buy the World Series. :)

I really like how the Diamondbacks rounded out their roster. Good depth top to bottom, pitching and field. Kennedy, Miley, McCarthy, Skaggs, Cahill, Corbin, D. Hudson, Randall Delgado... fuark.

Still would have loved to see Eaton up on the big league roster. Maybe that will happen someday, though it doesn't look imminent anymore with the signing of Ross.
Trading Bauer just seems like a bad misstep, though. We'll see in due time.
I'm actually in mild disagreement with both of you. I think many of the Diamondbacks' moves this offseason were almost downright inexplicable. I'll never know why Towers hates Justin Upton, but at least they did get Prado out of the deal. Apparently, Towers and his cadre want all of the "gritty infielders" there are, most of whom (Cliff Pennington from Oakland, Didi Gregorious from Cleveland, for starters) have very weak bats.

Having said that, I don't think Bauer is going to end up as anything significant. He's a Tim Lincecum wannabe who puts together a very complex motion but has next to no velocity. He'll never, ever, be the pitcher Lincecum was from 2008-2011 if he can't establish a fastball that dominates and makes everything else work. My big beef with the trade for the D-Bags is that they got very, very little in return. And even with Justin Upton, Towers and co. fucked up the market by always waving him around and belittling him (if you read between any lines at all) to anyone who would listen. They could have theoretically made out like bandits, and instead they made very modest-at-best improvements.

That is a thoroughly decent, solid starting rotation, though. Giants have had loads of trouble with several of those guys in the past.

Anyway... Off to GIANTS FanFest! Whoohoo!
 
#2,896 ·
I really like how the Diamondbacks rounded out their roster. Good depth top to bottom, pitching and field. Kennedy, Miley, McCarthy, Skaggs, Cahill, Corbin, D. Hudson, Randall Delgado... fuark.

Still would have loved to see Eaton up on the big league roster. Maybe that will happen someday, though it doesn't look imminent anymore with the signing of Ross.
 
#2,905 ·
Bauer is overhyped. He'll get a shot in Cleveland, so you're right - we'll see if he flourishes or not. He had absolutely no command of any of his pitches in the MLB. That's not a good sign.

Eww. Fuck that.

The odds of repeating, in truth, are always fairly remote. But not impossible.

One thing's for sure, if we aren't going to make it, I hope one of our fallback priorities is to, if nothing else, block the Dodgers from making it. They can't be allowed to even sniff a World Championship. And it's only good for baseball. Don't want people thinking you can buy the World Series. :)





I'm actually in mild disagreement with both of you. I think many of the Diamondbacks' moves this offseason were almost downright inexplicable. I'll never know why Towers hates Justin Upton, but at least they did get Prado out of the deal. Apparently, Towers and his cadre want all of the "gritty infielders" there are, most of whom (Cliff Pennington from Oakland, Didi Gregorious from Cleveland, for starters) have very weak bats.

Having said that, I don't think Bauer is going to end up as anything significant. He's a Tim Lincecum wannabe who puts together a very complex motion but has next to no velocity. He'll never, ever, be the pitcher Lincecum was from 2008-2011 if he can't establish a fastball that dominates and makes everything else work. My big beef with the trade for the D-Bags is that they got very, very little in return. And even with Justin Upton, Towers and co. fucked up the market by always waving him around and belittling him (if you read between any lines at all) to anyone who would listen. They could have theoretically made out like bandits, and instead they made very modest-at-best improvements.

That is a thoroughly decent, solid starting rotation, though. Giants have had loads of trouble with several of those guys in the past.

Anyway... Off to GIANTS FanFest! Whoohoo!
I'm in disagreement with you. They did well. You're not getting the Justin Upton MVP, you're getting a guy who is widely regarded as overweight and not fully committed. Anytime you can get rid of a guy who has become cancerous to a ball club, you do it. Still need a SS, but Prado is an upgrade to Johnson. Montero, Goldschmidt, Kubel, Prado, Hill, Para... not a bad nucleus.

Skaggs and Delgado are the two guys that they're building their rotation around. Not like they need them this year, either. Lots of depth, despite Kennedy having a down year and Cahill being injury plagued.
 
#2,899 ·
Mets are building up a nice minor league system...if this was 1999. Let's go LATROY HAWKINS, MARLON BYRD, BRANDON LYON & COREY PATTERSON~!

Dunno how I feel about the Red Sox this year. I can't stand Victorino, Napoli seems really banged up, god knows how Dempster does, etc.

As for the D-Backs who I mildly follow, I kinda like the changes they made. Big fan of Prado and I like them wrapping up Hill. I like Goldy and Montero quite a bit too and Brandon McCarthy is one of my favorite personalities in baseball.
 
#2,903 ·
They gave $35 Million to a 2nd baseman who had a career year at age 30. He'll almost assuredly become a below average defender by the time this extension is over (he'll be 34), and he's just been a wildly inconsistent hitter throughout his entire career. Maybe he can continue his success in Arizona, but it's just not something I'd bet on, and surely not worth a $35 Million bet.
 
#2,907 ·
Indeed, just saying it's not really a career year when he's had a year much better than the one he just had. I'm not expecting he'll get quite as good of numbers as last year but 285 w/ 20-25 and 75-85 is realistic I'd say.
 
#2,911 ·
#2,912 ·
Ordering tickets for either Sox/D-Backs in August or Sox/Rockies in June, Sox/Angels in June or Sox/Jays in June. Possibly a combination. Also trying to get to at least 1 Mets game and best case scenario ASG/HR Derby. Might even try hitting a Nats game some weekend too.

Honestly going to the derby in '02 was the best baseball experience I've ever had.

CANT WAIT FOR BASEBALL
 
#2,914 ·
DesoRow, I like your assessment of Bauer. He's puts WAY too much effort into his pitching. I'm not saying hard work is bad, I'm saying his pre-game warmup is insane and his wind up is ridiculous. To me, a pitcher needs to be as efficient as possible. His stuff was all over the place when I saw him pitch, and he got hammered quite a few times; I have to wonder is he gassed before he even throws his first pitch of the game as well. It was a disaster. I was surprised at his lack of velocity too. If he's a soft tossing control guy then lolol he has a ton of work to do. Fortunately, he's really young and it looks like he'd have some killer off speed stuff once he reigns it in.
 
#2,915 ·
His fastball velocity (in only 16 MLB innings) was 92.2. That was near King Felix, Sabathia, Shields, and Greinke territory. That isn't bad. His FB usage was 52.3%, near Hellickson, Lincecum, and Greinke. Good/great K pitchers such as Darvish, Cain, Volquez, and Hamels used their fastball less. Bauer is known to have a great repitoire of pitches. Basing most of your judgment off of 16 innings would be falling victim to small sample size. Verlander looked pedestrian at best in his almost 12 innings during his cup of coffee in 05 and went on to be ROY the next season. Lincecum has had great success with his windup and was mainly cursed by an astonishing increase in HR rate (which I would attest to as being a statistical oddity). Bauer doesn't need to blow you by with a 98 mph fastball when he's got a wide variety of pitches he can use to get you out. I'll wait more than 16 innings before I cast my judgment on him.
 
#2,916 ·
Oh, I wouldn't use the sixteen innings in MLB against him, either. It would be wrong to do that. And I'm also sure that part of the reason his velocity sometimes appears underwhelming is because he's employing a very-decent two-seamer fastball rather than the four-seamer, which he seems to have a bit less control over. And it's almost certain he'll be a perfectly all right No. 3 pitcher in MLB when it's all said and done; he definitely has a high floor.

The key problem for him in my view is that while his fastballs do feature late movement, they're nothing most Major League hitters aren't accustomed to. He'll probably end up looking splendid over the course of his first trip or two around the League once he comes back up in Cleveland, but experienced hitters will begin to sit on the two-seamer and ignore just about everything else if he doesn't vary it up more.

Again, he has a very high floor, but I don't believe in the ceiling proposed by many. Moreover, Bauer's college pitching was so lauded at UCLA by his coaches, he was allowed to throw more than 125 pitches ten times by the time he turned 20. (Lincecum threw just about as many innings as Bauer did five years earlier, but his pitch count within games was monitored closely.) It's obvious that he's strong and his unorthodox workout routine, pre-game rituals and windup all work for him now, but I personally wouldn't want him to be a centerpiece of my struggling team's future considering his smallish frame of 6'1" and 180-185 lbs. coupled to all of the aforementioned matters.

But, it's always possible he'll become a new Lincecum or Verlander; I just don't think so, but again projecting prospects is generally an inexact science.

Changing the subject a bit, it looks like King Felix's contract isn't going through because of some elbow trouble the Mariners have discovered... Sad to hear about this.

Ruh-roh:

Hardball Talk ‏@HardballTalk
Elbow issue could derail that Felix Hernandez extension http://dlvr.it/2wnBGn #mlb #hbt
 
#2,917 ·
Well you can clearly see that he can make the ball move a lot, he just can't miss bats right now when he does get it in the zone. Pretty sure his failures were mostly due to walks. Walking the bases loaded or any other jam due to walks obviously is bad. I did say he's really young, so he's not a lost cause by any stretch.
 
#2,918 ·
From Buster Olney:

As the Seattle Mariners have been in discussions with Felix Hernandez about a record-setting extension, concern has developed over the condition of his pitching elbow, a source says.

The elbow issue is perceived by at least one of the parties in the deal as being a possible impediment to the completion of the new contract.

"It's an issue," said one source.


Bob Nightengale:

Felix Hernandez knows elbow became "issue'' after his physical, but both sides say still hoping to complete $175 million deal #mariners
 
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