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Old 06-07-2012, 07:05 PM   #691 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

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Originally Posted by MrMister View Post
@PP: Agreed. Nothing is more frustrating than errors on routine plays. Excessive walks are the other thing that annoys me.


@WallofShame: The Zobrist/ARam question was just an inside joke with myself. I have them in fantasy and they are really awful to begin this season. I didn't expect an answer, but asked since you seem to be a stat-head.


We seem to agree on the other stuff for the most part.
Oh! Well I can provide a little insight if you want to trust a random WF poster. Ramirez is a notoriously slow starter and with baseball you sometimes just have to be patient. He is on my fantasy team and I have just been patient with him. This past week he seems to be heating up. What's the format of your league? H2H points? H2H categories? Roto? You certainly do not want to sell low on him.

As for Zobrist, he has been one of the absolute best players in baseball the last 2-3 years. Sadly, defense is a lot of his value which isn't used in fantasy. However, his numbers are actual very similar from the last few years. his BB% (walk rate) is actually at a career high and K% is about at his career norm, actually under it. He seems to just be getting unlucky. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) is about .100 points lower than his career norm. Which, basically means he is getting EXTREMELY unlucky. The average players BABIP is .300 and his is sitting at .210. I can't really explain BABIP well but if you care to learn here is a link: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/ind...offense/babip/. All you need to know is BABIP has little to do with him but a lot to do with luck. This suggests that he should start getting luckier and we should see his average to start climbing. I would not give up on him.
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Old 06-07-2012, 07:12 PM   #692 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Yeah I've watched Zobrist and while he strikes out like everyone does (i.e. it doesn't concern me), when he has made contact, it's usually good contact...but directly at a defender whether it be an infielder or outfielder. So yeah, he's been pretty unlucky.

Alexei did seem to be getting his shit together, but he's gone cold yet again. Baby steps I guess. lol only 1 HR though. I mean I know his game isn't really power, but...1 HOME RUN? It's June Alexei.

But yeah, not giving up on either of them. I'm actually fine if Zobrist only hits .230 to .250 as long as he gets those counting stats, which he does seem to be able to do looking at his career. The Rays as whole seem to be in a funk atm, so it's not only him. Perhaps Longo's return will ignite them. Zobrist's walks can turn into a lot of runs with Longoria behind him in the lineup.

It's rough though. Most of my team is kinda slumping/funking it up right now. Dat's how baseball go.
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Old 06-07-2012, 08:14 PM   #693 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

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That being said, WallofShame, it doesn't make it, "stupid". It's a risk and reward situation. Taking that risk for a possible reward isn't stupid at all. Plus I don't see many times you would sac bunt to get someone to second. It's mostly used to get the runner to third with under two outs and then it's mostly done by a pitcher in the NL.

As for stealing, I'm all for it and I see nothing stupid about it. It's a risk, of course...but with some players the risk is worth it.
I've gotta go with this.

Stealing and bunting are not "stupid"...Theyre "stupid" if you adhere to the belief that all risk is bad. Thats why Oakland, for as great as they were at pioneering the "Moneyball" concept, never won a title (since they started using the Moneyball philosophy). Their baseball philosophy revolved around the motto "you only get 27 outs, dont give any away". While this isnt a BAD motto to live by, it shouldnt be the ONLY motto to live by. The best teams take the risks you are labeling "stupid". Do they always payoff? No. But you cant not steal a base or bunt because there's a chance you'll fail.

I love sabermetrics as much as the next guy, but when it becomes the only thing you base baseball decisions on, it becomes a detriment.
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Old 06-07-2012, 08:18 PM   #694 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

If you're going to bunt him over from 1st to 2nd, you might as well just got for the steal instead.
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Old 06-07-2012, 08:50 PM   #695 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMister View Post
Yeah I've watched Zobrist and while he strikes out like everyone does (i.e. it doesn't concern me), when he has made contact, it's usually good contact...but directly at a defender whether it be an infielder or outfielder. So yeah, he's been pretty unlucky.

Alexei did seem to be getting his shit together, but he's gone cold yet again. Baby steps I guess. lol only 1 HR though. I mean I know his game isn't really power, but...1 HOME RUN? It's June Alexei.

But yeah, not giving up on either of them. I'm actually fine if Zobrist only hits .230 to .250 as long as he gets those counting stats, which he does seem to be able to do looking at his career. The Rays as whole seem to be in a funk atm, so it's not only him. Perhaps Longo's return will ignite them. Zobrist's walks can turn into a lot of runs with Longoria behind him in the lineup.

It's rough though. Most of my team is kinda slumping/funking it up right now. Dat's how baseball go.
I agree completely! What is your fantasy format? Sounds like Roto or H2H categories? Alexei power potential is probably 15 HRs. I can see him getting 10-12 by the end of the year.

The Rays are my second favorite team behind the Angels. I am in love with Joe Madden. We think identically. The team will be fine. He is the antithesis of Ron Washington, who IMO is the most laughably bad manager in baseball. He single handedly cost the Rangers the World Series last year. I know my methodology in baseball is right because it is the opposite of everything he does.

Quote:
Stealing and bunting are not "stupid"...Theyre "stupid" if you adhere to the belief that all risk is bad. Thats why Oakland, for as great as they were at pioneering the "Moneyball" concept, never won a title (since they started using the Moneyball philosophy). Their baseball philosophy revolved around the motto "you only get 27 outs, dont give any away". While this isnt a BAD motto to live by, it shouldnt be the ONLY motto to live by. The best teams take the risks you are labeling "stupid". Do they always payoff? No. But you cant not steal a base or bunt because there's a chance you'll fail.

I love sabermetrics as much as the next guy, but when it becomes the only thing you base baseball decisions on, it becomes a detriment.
The Oakland A's didn't win the WS because once teams make the playoffs it is a total crap shoot. They had the best team a couple of those years but lost a 5 games series. It happens. In baseball more so than any other sport, the best team doesn't always win. Just look at the 2008 and 2011 Cardinals.

Also, that wasn't the A's motto. The A's valued OBP and things the market undervalued. The general idea was to exploit attributes in players that the market didn't value, so they could get players that provided equal value in terms of wins at a fraction of the cost. During that time period it was OBP and defense. So they signed players that were strong in those categories for low costs and were able to win a 100 games on a tiny budget. That was their motto.

And the bolded part, the "risk" of stealing, fine that is your opinion to have. Stealing is much more open to preference. But there is no "risk" in bunting. You're chances of scoring runs with a runner on second and 1 out is SIGNIFICANTLY less than a runner on first and no outs. It has NOTHING to do with risk. 80% of the time teams sacrifice bunt is the wrong decision. They do it because of the "history" of the game and what people have believed for a 100 years. Evidence now-a-days suggests otherwise but people are stuck in their ways and refuse to change.

ok, after 3 edits I'm satisfied with my response
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Old 06-07-2012, 08:55 PM   #696 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Wash is awesome just for his quotes. Dat's how baseball go. He can drive me crazy at times though, not gonna lie. I can't talk about last year's World Series. I'm a Rangers fan.

Format is H2H 5x5.
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Old 06-07-2012, 09:04 PM   #697 (permalink)
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Clay Buccholz doing the opposite of what he's been doing.
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Old 06-07-2012, 09:10 PM   #698 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

I love h2h but prefer points to 5x5. Rangers fan? As a Halo fan maybe we can have some friendly banter.

Anyways, can't blame you for wanting to block out the WS. Washington's use of the bullpen was cringyworthy. Also starting Harrison because "its what we have been doing all year and I'm not going to change anything" was just inexplicably awful. I'm sorry but I see no added value in him, only as a detriment. He is the perfect example of being stubborn with "old school baseball" and refusing to adapt to the times. Texas is a joy to watch though. Best team in baseball imho
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Old 06-07-2012, 09:30 PM   #699 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

There are a few more Angels fans here too. DubC and InYourFace come to mind, but there's at least one more I'm forgetting probably. That one could be you though lol.

Texas is playing pretty poorly atm. It's widespread bad, hitting, fielding, pitching. Hitting comes and goes so while it's frustrating I'll roll with it. They have too good of an infield to make some of the mistakes they have however. Pitching was never their strength, though the bullpen is pretty solid so far overall. Darvish has been struggling in his last few starts. Kinda concerned about that the most. I know he'll give up runs in Arlington, but he's struggled against the A's and M's on the road. This is bad.
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Old 06-07-2012, 09:53 PM   #700 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

The other Angels fan definitely wasn't me. I discovered the Sports section just today so doubt anyone could know of my obsession. But it is definitely an obsession.

With the Rangers, I'm pretty sure they are still the top ranked offense in baseball. And I know they have the best run differential still. One of the best offenses, stellar rotation imo (Roy Oswalt probably would be their number 5), and one of the best bullpens. The only thing that has been unusually disappointing is their defense. I don't get whats up with that. Their outfield is suspect (Hamilton isn't much of a defensive CF) but its been their infield which has been terrible all year. The pitching and offensive is just going through a recent cold stretch. Happens. Dats baseball. I wish I could believe their recent cold stretch will be more of the norm rather an aberration, but its just that an aberration.

What is the MOST puzzling is how the M's and A's have been hitting the cover off the ball. What the hell? Michael Saunders? Who the fuck is this guy? Just destroying the ball. They scored 8 runs on the Halos last night all with two outs.
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