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Old 06-07-2012, 06:11 PM   #681 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMister View Post
Don't double post.

Why are bunting and stealing stupid?
Sorry for double posting.

Bunting is stupid because your run expectancy with a runner on 1st and no outs is greater than a runner on 2nd with 1 out. I should have specified sacrifice bunting. Source: The Book. Great book for statheads.

Stealing is stupid because by successfully stealing 2nd your run expectancy increases by about .5. But getting caught stealing decreases run expectancy by about -.7 runs. So the risk outweights the reward. Source: The Book again. Author Tom Tango.

Now, obviously there are instances where you should sac bunt or steal but its rare and as a general rule you should not really be doing them. If someone like Jeff Mathis or Dee Gordon is up, sacrificing is more acceptable.

Platooning is something that is totally underutilized and something that has not caught on with most managers. Only the best managers seem to grasp these new concepts that have become available through statistical research. ie the GOAT Joe Madden.
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:17 PM   #682 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

That being said, WallofShame, it doesn't make it, "stupid". It's a risk and reward situation. Taking that risk for a possible reward isn't stupid at all. Plus I don't see many times you would sac bunt to get someone to second. It's mostly used to get the runner to third with under two outs and then it's mostly done by a pitcher in the NL.

As for stealing, I'm all for it and I see nothing stupid about it. It's a risk, of course...but with some players the risk is worth it.
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:24 PM   #683 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

WallofShame how can Ben Zobrist and Alexei Ramirez stop sucking?

As for bunting like LC mentioned is it still bad if there are not outs and a sac bunt moves a guy to 3rd? Also, what about guys at 1st and 2nd, no outs, and the batter is a low AVG type/susceptible to the ground ball double play? I guess you're saying bunting is bad as a general strategy, but has uses in situations. Or not?
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:29 PM   #684 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Quote:
Originally Posted by LadyCroft View Post
That being said, WallofShame, it doesn't make it, "stupid". It's a risk and reward situation. Taking that risk for a possible reward isn't stupid at all. Plus I don't see many times you would sac bunt to get someone to second. It's mostly used to get the runner to third with under two outs and then it's mostly done by a pitcher in the NL.

As for stealing, I'm all for it and I see nothing stupid about it. It's a risk, of course...but with some players the risk is worth it.
I respect your opinion on stealing, its more open to your opinion on risk-reward. I disagree with you about bunting though. Nearly all sacrifice bunts done are to move the runner over to second from first. The thinking being that it puts the runner in scoring position. It is silly to bunt a man over to third because he is already in scoring position at 2nd. The only time someone ever bunts a runner over to third is if, as you said, a pitcher is batting. And, as I said in my previous post, you score more runs on average with a runner on first and no outs then with a runner on second and one out. That is based on The Book collecting the data of every instance those situations have ever happened in MLB history and averaging them out.
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:29 PM   #685 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

There's lots of times managers will bunt a runner over to second with 0 outs. I've seen Leyland do it countless times this year. Most of the time I'm against it though - you're giving away an out in attempt to play for 1 run. In the 3rd, 4th, 5th innings, that's just dumb. You have a lot of outs to use, and unless it's the pitcher (where bunting is a preferred choice) I'd rather have my guy go up and swing. Maybe he hits a seeing eye single and the runner goes from first to third. Maybe the guy gets ahold of one and drives it off the wall. These guys are paid to hit. And if they can't, frankly, they deserve a spot on the bench.

Sacrifice bunts should really only be used in a handful of cases - 1) when the pitcher is up, 2) when you need one run and it's late in the game (7th on). I don't wanna see a 3rd inning bunt by the #2 hitter. I want to see him get up there and try to hit something the opposite way and try to find a hole, or possibly draw a walk.
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:31 PM   #686 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Quote:
Originally Posted by WallofShame View Post
I respect your opinion on stealing, its more open to your opinion on risk-reward. I disagree with you about bunting though. Nearly all sacrifice bunts done are to move the runner over to second from first. The thinking being that it puts the runner in scoring position. It is silly to bunt a man over to third because he is already in scoring position at 2nd. The only time someone ever bunts a runner over to third is if, as you said, a pitcher is batting. And, as I said in my previous post, you score more runs on average with a runner on first and no outs then with a runner on second and one out. That is based on every instance of that situation throughout major league history.
I watch baseball everyday and I can't remember the last time I saw a sacrifice bunt trying to get a runner from first to second...

Also bunting a runner to third is smart because if he's on second he cannot score on a sacrifice fly or an infield ground ball... come on now.
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:33 PM   #687 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Moving a guy from 2nd to 3rd means you can then sacrifice him home pretty easily. Sometimes this is the only way to score on some pitchers. Should this be done every game, every time? Fuck no lol.
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:49 PM   #688 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

One thing I hate more than sacrifice bunts in the middle of a game - defenders fucking up on routine plays with 2 outs. Just a few moments ago the Rays SS had a routine grounder hit to him and all he had to do was throw it maybe 100 feet. He bobbles the ball, Tex gets on, and now the Yankees have a rally going. Same thing happened to the Tigers last night with Scherzer pitching and Boesch made an error with 2 outs. Next hitter bombs a HR and the Tigers are in an early hole. I know the guys don't do it on purpose and make mistakes, but damn, your a major leaguer and you can't field a routine play? C'mon now. Having to get extra outs pisses me off.
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:49 PM   #689 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Quote:
Originally Posted by LadyCroft View Post
I watch baseball everyday and I can't remember the last time I saw a sacrifice bunt trying to get a runner from first to second...

Also bunting a runner to third is smart because if he's on second he cannot score on a sacrifice fly or an infield ground ball... come on now.
For all sacrifice bunts done between 2000-2004 in the NL and AL, 48.6% resulted in the runnner ending up on second with 1 out. Or, in other words, they bunted with a runner on first and no outs. 26.1% resulted in the runner staying at first with one out. Or, they attempted to bunt him to second but the sacrificer failed. That is 64.7%. However, only .2% resulted in the runner on 3rd with 1 out. Or, they bunted with a runner on second no outs. Numbers don't lie. Comes from The Book, page 249.

If you have a man on second and no outs, you let the batter hit because most outcomes will result in the runner on second ending up on the third regardless.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMister View Post
Moving a guy from 2nd to 3rd means you can then sacrifice him home pretty easily. Sometimes this is the only way to score on some pitchers. Should this be done every game, every time? Fuck no lol.
There are many ways to move a guy from 2nd to 3rd without just giving up an out in sacrifice bunting. Usually the hitter will focus on hitting the ball to the right side. It is silly to give up an out with a runner already in scoring position even when you have the added benefit of getting a sac fly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfect Poster View Post
There's lots of times managers will bunt a runner over to second with 0 outs. I've seen Leyland do it countless times this year. Most of the time I'm against it though - you're giving away an out in attempt to play for 1 run. In the 3rd, 4th, 5th innings, that's just dumb. You have a lot of outs to use, and unless it's the pitcher (where bunting is a preferred choice) I'd rather have my guy go up and swing. Maybe he hits a seeing eye single and the runner goes from first to third. Maybe the guy gets ahold of one and drives it off the wall. These guys are paid to hit. And if they can't, frankly, they deserve a spot on the bench.

Sacrifice bunts should really only be used in a handful of cases - 1) when the pitcher is up, 2) when you need one run and it's late in the game (7th on). I don't wanna see a 3rd inning bunt by the #2 hitter. I want to see him get up there and try to hit something the opposite way and try to find a hole, or possibly draw a walk.
I completely agree with you! Leyland is another old school manager, which is why he bunts so much.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMister View Post
WallofShame how can Ben Zobrist and Alexei Ramirez stop sucking?

As for bunting like LC mentioned is it still bad if there are not outs and a sac bunt moves a guy to 3rd? Also, what about guys at 1st and 2nd, no outs, and the batter is a low AVG type/susceptible to the ground ball double play? I guess you're saying bunting is bad as a general strategy, but has uses in situations. Or not?
I don't understand your comment on Zobrist and Ramirez. As for the other stuff, run expectancy (I'll call it RE now), with man on second and no outs is 1.148. RE with man on third with one out (resulting from the sac bunt) is .982. So the RE decreases, so general practice says don't do it, which is why it is never really done. RE for first and second no outs is 1.5, RE for third and second with one out is 1.401. So, again, RE decreases.

But the situation you presented with the low AVG/DP guy, yes you would probably sac bunt him. Bunting is a bad general strategy BUT it does have its uses in situations, that is exactly what I am saying. I noted that in an earlier post
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:51 PM   #690 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

@PP: Agreed. Nothing is more frustrating than errors on routine plays. Excessive walks are the other thing that annoys me.


@WallofShame: The Zobrist/ARam question was just an inside joke with myself. I have them in fantasy and they are really awful to begin this season. I didn't expect an answer, but asked since you seem to be a stat-head.


We seem to agree on the other stuff for the most part.
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