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Old 05-29-2012, 08:04 PM   #611 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Weaver is out for 15 days, so he'll miss two starts, could have been worst I guess. Speaking of Rangers, I might go see them against Angels on Saturday. Should be a good series.
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Old 05-29-2012, 08:24 PM   #612 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Don't sleep on them White Sox, fellas'. They'll be in the playoffs this year.
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Old 05-29-2012, 09:08 PM   #613 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

For sure Flex. Chisox offense does not fuck around. Shit even Alexei Ramirez is finally hitting. That lineup is on fire and is definitely hitting the best of any team atm. Konerko around .400 too.

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Originally Posted by DubC View Post
Weaver is out for 15 days, so he'll miss two starts, could have been worst I guess. Speaking of Rangers, I might go see them against Angels on Saturday. Should be a good series.
Yeah man, your Angels are coming on. I was actually really looking forward to some epic games and I think it's gonna happen.

I figured Weaver would hit the DL from what I read about him. I want him back asap. I'm serious when I say I want some epic Rangers/Angels games.
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Old 05-29-2012, 09:39 PM   #614 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Konerko's gonna regress big time. No way he maintains his .400+ BABIP. His power might stay like it is but I'd be surprised if he kept his average above .350. AJ's power won't stay either, considering he never has slugged even .450 and has never been the offensive presence he is this season. Peavy is already starting to come back to earth a bit and you'll see others as well. They're riding a hot streak right now, but I wouldn't doubt the winner of that division doesn't top out at more than 87-88 wins.
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Old 05-29-2012, 09:47 PM   #615 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Pauly is phenomenal. I think you're underestimating how good he really is. I don't expect him to hit .400 but .330 is never out of the question. On anything away from him, he takes it to the opposite field. Conversely, anything inside, Konerko turns on it and pulls it into the stands in left field. The guy has only gotten better as he has aged. But yeah, ever since he got beaned in the face, he's been pissed off and been a monster.

You know Pauly, Dunn, and Rios aren't going away. Those guys are here to stay. Rios and Dunn have had reclamation projects under Rockin' Robin. AJ is coming into his own for the first time in his career at the plate. We'll see if he can keep up his production. I'm a little skeptical there myself.

Sale is the real deal, however. And Danks can't possibly pitch much worse than he has to this point.
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Old 05-29-2012, 09:48 PM   #616 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Yeah Konerko won't hit .400 lol, but it just shows how hot the offense is. Shit even Orlando Hudson can hit and he couldn't do shit with the Padres.

I don't buy Rios being that good, but he can benefit from the bats around him.


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Old 05-29-2012, 09:54 PM   #617 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

All fair points there, MrMister. The only thing I can go by is the eye test. I can tell how hard this team plays under Robin. They bust their butt for that guy. Not to mention that the Ozzie saga really took a toll on the ball club last year. Huge difference in the energy and atmosphere in the locker room, in my opinion.
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Old 05-29-2012, 09:58 PM   #618 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

I actually agree that they can make the playoffs. I watch the Chisox often too due to Ramirez, De Aza, and Sale, and they're impressive. I think the offense is for real; they won't keep up this pace, but they're going to be good all year. We'll see about that pitching though.
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Old 05-29-2012, 10:28 PM   #619 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

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All fair points there, MrMister. The only thing I can go by is the eye test. I can tell how hard this team plays under Robin. They bust their butt for that guy. Not to mention that the Ozzie saga really took a toll on the ball club last year. Huge difference in the energy and atmosphere in the locker room, in my opinion.
While that's all fine, statistics tell a lot. A stat like BABIP (batting average on balls in play) helps us somewhat predict what will happen in the future. League average is around .290, although you'll see guys that hit line drives at a higher rate (harder contact) and faster guys (higher chance of infield hits) likely have higher BABIP. Paulie is hitting LDs at a good rate, but it's not even his career highs. He's hitting for a little more pop, which may be sustainable, but no way that 43% of the hits he makes contact with will fall for hits. He'll likely end up just a tad higher than the league average, which is good, but still will result in him cooling down considerably.

Sale has pitched about as good as his numbers show, but the problem is he hasn't pitched a significant amount of innings as a starter in his major league career and is only 23, so he'll likely be limited in his innings - whether he's shut down during the middle of the season or otherwise. He won't be a 200 innings pitcher this season.

AJ will likely maintain his average, but not the power that he's getting. I'm sorry, but a 35 year old routinely poor offensive catcher won't post a .200+ ISO power, which is exceptional. You might only see another HR or two from him in the next month+. He's currently on a hot streak right now, just like many of the WS hitters.

I can see Rios continue his production, which actually isn't all that impressive when it stretches out to about a 2.0 WAR season (which is what your typical starter should produce) through 162 games.

tl;dr - A bunch of WS are hot all at once which is why they've won 10 of 11, many of them won't continue the amazing production they're on. As I said, the winner of the division won't top out over 90 wins, likely 85-89.
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Old 05-29-2012, 10:35 PM   #620 (permalink)
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Default re: 2012 GIANTS...TROUT >

Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfect Poster View Post
While that's all fine, statistics tell a lot. A stat like BABIP (batting average on balls in play) helps us somewhat predict what will happen in the future. League average is around .290, although you'll see guys that hit line drives at a higher rate (harder contact) and faster guys (higher chance of infield hits) likely have higher BABIP. Paulie is hitting LDs at a good rate, but it's not even his career highs. He's hitting for a little more pop, which may be sustainable, but no way that 43% of the hits he makes contact with will fall for hits. He'll likely end up just a tad higher than the league average, which is good, but still will result in him cooling down considerably.

Sale has pitched about as good as his numbers show, but the problem is he hasn't pitched a significant amount of innings as a starter in his major league career and is only 23, so he'll likely be limited in his innings - whether he's shut down during the middle of the season or otherwise. He won't be a 200 innings pitcher this season.

AJ will likely maintain his average, but not the power that he's getting. I'm sorry, but a 35 year old routinely poor offensive catcher won't post a .200+ ISO power, which is exceptional. You might only see another HR or two from him in the next month+. He's currently on a hot streak right now, just like many of the WS hitters.

I can see Rios continue his production, which actually isn't all that impressive when it stretches out to about a 2.0 WAR season (which is what your typical starter should produce) through 162 games.

tl;dr - A bunch of WS are hot all at once which is why they've won 10 of 11, many of them won't continue the amazing production they're on. As I said, the winner of the division won't top out over 90 wins, likely 85-89.
I read it all. Compelling argument. I don't know if we actually disagree on anything except for the fact that I think this team's offense won't regress to the point you think they will.
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