There is no duty we so much underrate as... being happy. -Robert Louis Stevenson
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Staying on Alcatraz for the Holidays
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re: MLB: ONE WEEK!
It will be a deal that signifies his complete coronation as the cornerstone and face of the Giants franchise, that much is certain. I'd say he gets seven years at the minimum, the Joey Votto-esque 12 years at the most, but I would not be surprised if they fall on 10 years.
The cloesest, most recent case study for comparison would have to be Derek Jeter. That, however, was different, in that he only had one more year until he would hit free agency when that contract was put together. (It was for 10 years, $189 million. Which seemed absolutely insane back then and is still huge today.)
The thing about signing Posey long-term now, though, is that what looks expensive today tends to look like a borderline bargain in a few years. We've seen the continual trend with baseball contracts, and it's only going to expand in that direction as more and more clubs get new TV deals--which are partly what have influenced deals as varied as the aforementioned Votto signing to all of the big-spending by the Dodgers.
The Giants' front office is about to come into some very good times, financially: 2013 is the last year of Zito's astonishing contract (thank goodness, lol at the $7 million buyout); there is an extremely good chance Tim Lincecum is on another team in nine or ten months, the odds of which only rise exponentially should he not return to at least approximate 2011-level Lincecum standards or if he simply stinks up the joint again ala 2012... his betting on himself before the 2012 season by negotiating for a short-term two-year deal may have been the biggest gift to the Giants front office, since not signing that ~$100 million deal offered for five or six years will look like a mammoth savings, and right now it looks like the Giants may have dodged a terrible bullet from a baseball-sense level, too, and if Lincecum has something like a so-so or even solid year, I would hardly be surprised if Sabean simply offers him a mere one-year qualifying offer that sees Lincecum return for only one more year or the Giants end up with another draft pick from the Red Sox or Mariners or whoever; Matt Cain's deal from a year ago already looks like a bargain based on what King Felix just signed on for, and the deals the likes of Kershaw and Verlander are doubtless going to be receiving; Madison Bumgarner's deal is, along with the Pirates' deal with McCutchen, one of the most team-friendly I've seen in a good while now, ensuring the team has a strong 1-2 for years to come in Cain and Bum at very decent prices; this team's core is very young, and several members of it won't be eligible for arbitration for at least a couple of more years--even with the 37-year-old Scutaro, the infield's average age is 26.5 years old; AT&T Park will be fully paid off by 2017 with no sweat.
If you're a Giants fan, you've heard the term "rainy day fund" from the front office for years. With the Cain and Bumgarner signings a year ago, and with the likely mega-extension of Posey coming very soon, the rain is coming down right now.