Originally Posted by Triple HBK
Our run home is Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Port in Tassie, Gold Coast, Sydney away and West Coast home. To guarantee a top 4 spot we need to win a minimum 5 of those 7. Percentage is no issue. We just need to keep winning.
I've been thinking about this for a while and the games that really worry me are the last two and the Pies after their performance at the weekend. I don't see us winning in Sydney at all, and even though we won there last year they're a better team now and destroyed us in Tassie this season. West Coast at the MCG is a bit tougher after their performance there against Collingwood when they only just lost and they should have most of their injured players back by then. Plus there should be a lot to play for in that game for both sides.
We'll beat Port & the mighty Suns so that's two wins. We'll lose in Sydney and we need three from the Pies, Bombers, Cats & Eagles. You don't know which Essendon or Geelong you're going to get one week to the next but Geeelong are awful right now. They always raise their game against us as do Essendon. We can win three, maybe all four but I expect us to lose on Saturday against the Pies. The only consolation is I think Adelaide will edge West Coast this weekend only because it'll be a weakened Eagles team.
The odds for the Premiership over here are insane. We're favourites at 11/5, Collingwood 3/1, Sydney 5/1 & West Coast 13/2. I put £20 on Sydney just before and already put £30 on the Pies a while ago when they were 6/1. I'm sure Sydney will finish top of the ladder but my only concern is that they have to play the final in Melbourne, probably against Collingwood now that the Eagles have dropped and that they won't have the home advantage when it comes to preliminary finals.
Geelong are 7/5 to make the top 8, North 8/15 & St. Kilda Rapists 1/6. Fremantle have a shot too but I can't remember their odds. I need to check out the schedule to see who they've got left to play but I know they've got GWS at home this week. That could push them up into the eight.
Essendon - 44
North Melbourne (h)
Geelong - 36
West Coast (a)
St. Kilda (h)
North Melbourne - 32
St. Kilda - 32
Fremantle - 32
Port Adelaide (a)
West Coast (h)
North Melbourne (a)