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Why is the Royal Rumble also so predictable?

5K views 63 replies 50 participants last post by  The Renegade 
#1 ·
This isn't a RR bash thread, but rather a realistic look at it.

Ever since about 96, you pretty much know who is gonna win. The storylines leading up to the event are focused on one guy.

During the match, a midcard guy (take Devon Dudley for example) will enter the Rumble, and the commentators will say, "Will Devon Dudley win and headline WrestleMania?!?!"

We know DAMN WELL that a mid card guy will NOT win the Rumble.

My question is, why can't someone TOTALLY unpredictable win?

Even if they lose their shot at the Feb PPV, I think it would put a nice unpredictable twist that is desperately needed.

Thoughts?
 
#2 · (Edited)
I actually think this year is one of the more open rumbles in recent memory.

Of course D-von will not win, as the winner must be of Wrestlemania main even calibre, for WWE to have 5 or 6 names worthy of this in the Rumble is pretty good going, let alone 30. For them to give it to a mid carder or lower just to lose it at Fast Lane would be one of the worst things they could do.
 
#4 ·
Because most casual fans don't want a mid-carder that they don't care about to main event Wrestlemania. I actually don't think its totally predictable, I mean 70-80% of fans thought Roman was going to win last year and at least 20 people on this website said Triple H was going to win.
 
#17 ·
Because most casual fans don't want a mid-carder that they don't care about to main event Wrestlemania. I actually don't think its totally predictable,
I mean 70-80% of fans thought Roman was going to win last year and at least 20 people on this website said Triple H was going to win
]
95% of this forum predicted HHH would win. It was obvious since Roman was fed Sheamus and Vince. Logically HHH was next for Roman to defeat. Except Roman needed a coronation he didn't get at WrestleMania Play. No one thought Roman would win.
 
#10 ·
Because it's a big deal to win the Rumble. It's only one during a year and the winner main events Mania. It's one of the most important things a superstar can achieve, for me only winning the WWE title is better if the title is not hot-potatoed. And if a jobber will win it, it would devalue the Rumble same as the WHC title was devalued by Swagger or Khali.
 
#12 ·
Because there aren't 30 people worthy of main eventing Mania, simple as that. If the Rumble was just a contest for the sake of it, like the Andre the Giant Battle Royal, then they could throw the swerve just because. But being for the title, the swerve is when a main eventer you didn't expect to win wins, like Rollins winning it this year.

Anyway, in the last few years it became even worse, but that's because WWE roster is to an all time low when it comes to star-power, so you really have a small group of people who could. If I rule out part-timers, people involved in a match for the title and injuried, only Ambrose and Rollins have a chance.
 
#14 ·
In 2013, I had #30 in a Rumble pool lol, it turned out to be Ryback, and I was so pissed when he came second :lol

I think a lot of the winners are predictable, it's more fun to trying to predict who will be the runner up. I wouldn't have believed that Dean Ambrose would have been runner up behind Triple H last year tbh.

Despite the predictability, it's still one of my favourite events of the year :shrug
 
#15 ·
With no Cena or Reigns... Jericho expected to leave shortly after WM. Balor on the mend. Lesnar/Goldberg 3 reportedly.

Predictable 2017: Undertaker is a lock.
 
#18 ·
This year is actually not as predicable, ever since 2012 every Rumble has been very predicable up until now.

I'd divide the candidates into 3 groups

Very likely to win
Balor
Jericho
Undertaker

Likely to win
Goldberg
Braun
Brock

Not likely but could happen
Miz
Orton
Bray

Outside of these 9 people no one will win, and tbh it's more like between 5 guys and the other 4 are wild cards, for example I think Bray might have like a 0.5% chance of winning the RR, but because I think he still has a chance I put him in my list.

Outside of these 9 people everyone else have 0 chance of winning the RR. It's one of these guys.

I hope you're not one of those people who thinks Sami Zayn will win :mj4
 
#20 ·
It's one of those things that works much better when you are a mark. Back in the day, it was really good but I believed that every midcarder had a shot at it, you simply believed it and didn't cared about the story going on and it was fantastic ( and that's how I always try to watch it )

Now ? Well, there are two titles on the line and unlike what they want us to think, it will always have to make sense so the number of people winning the title easily gets really thin, it's just a matter of guessing what they want to do for Wrestlemania. It is no different than guessing what will be the title match at Summerslam
 
#24 ·
It's basically always been predictable outside of maybe 2 or 3 instances, and that's because WWE has storylines.

It's not a real fucking sport. No one wants to see some shitty midcarder win the Royal Rumble and main event WM. It boils down to main eventers, and whatever story could work for that angle. There are hardly any main eventers as it is. That's all it is, and the match is there to enhance the main event story. Even the years it's "unpredictable", what the actually means is that it could be between 2 people who are winning. It's never been the case that the Royal Rumble has potentially several winners. You could basically eliminate 28 people every year with ease, and usually, you can get it down to just 1 guy who has a real shot.

Like this year. People feel it's unpredictable. It's also very obviously going to be between Finn Balor or Undertaker. It's basically a coin toss, and you have your winner. That's still more unpredictable than most years where it's obvious who the winner is going to be.
 
#26 ·
Because the Rumble just isn't used to elevate guys into the main event, it's used for already established main eventers to get into the main event, because... reasons.

This year it does feel a bit intriguing though. Many people speculate Balor will win, others say Taker, others say Goldberg, the options are open, definitely.

There are never going to be all that many likely winners of the Rumble because of the reward but at least this year it gets you thinking.
 
#27 ·
The biggest problem I've had with the last few Rumbles is they don't really advance non-Main Event storylines. Feuds need to be set-up or take a turn and the Rumble is one of the best places to do it in ring terms. Last year's One versus All was probably the most culpable in this regard in years.
 
#28 ·
Hello I don't think the Rumble is predictable much it depends on who is fit that year.

Also it all depends on which past superstars return to the WWE.

As a wreslter might say they are injured as in 2008 John Cena was thought to be injured but he appeared at number 30. So this year a returning superstar from injured could win( Fin Bálor). Otherwise a superstar who is still active but not in the WWE but could be unattached could win the Rumble or do well .

Yours

Farhan
 
#30 ·
In my opinion, if you have more than two guys that could win the Rumble you are doing pretty well. The truth is, to be in the world title match at Wrestlemania is a very exclusive spot, especially when you factor that in with the heel/face dynamic. We know that if RR wins the UC at RR then it's unlikely that Seth Rollins will win the rumble because they're both faces. That's one of the pluses of the brand split I guess, you have more likely options because of two world titles.

I don't think unpredictability is essential in making a good Rumble though. Sure, it's nice to have a few guys that could win to give the finish a bit of tension, but it's not the be all and end all. For me a good Rumble is made from a mix of - a good story being told throughout, existing feuds being progressed, new feuds being created, surprise entrants, comedy moments, as well as unpredictability.

2002 is one of my favourite Rumbles and that was SO obvious that HHH was going to win. But it didn't matter because it had moments like Maven eliminating Taker. The story between Austin & Trips. Mr.Perfect. Hurricane trying to eliminate Austin & HHH etc.
 
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