Originally Posted by Da Silva
Oddly specific for a rough guesstimate.
You can get a good idea of where the rating will be by using a regression against previous raw ratings, previous smackdown ratings and whether the show follows a PPV (like this week). So the model's prediction this week, for example, was only 1.7% off target. It's more than just guesswork.
Key point is: the quality of a show is not reflected in the current rating, but future ratings.