to follow up on this shep, how can an opinion be formed on the wagon when he could flip either way? There is no logical reason for derailing the curent wagon, at the same time there was no logical reason to vote him as well.
id try to derail a wagon if i was highly certain the person was town and their claiming wouldn't be beneficial to us. admittedly most day 1 wagons are built from crap reasons and it's something that is just accepted but when you consider the fact it's naFFan who people are going to vote for anyway and then the speed at which he picked up votes as opposed to other wagons started today the signs are going to point to a bad thing for us and the most you hope for is that he doesn't claim a power role.
wagons can be analysed without a flip. yes the flip helps but by looking at a wagon itself you'd probably gain a lot of insight as to who voted and why. same goes for those who didnt hop on it
also we can consider the possibilty of FF being the scum BG but something like that would probably only become a possibilty if he isn't dead within the next few night phases.