Originally Posted by dan_marino
Eh but then you'd also take into account how often you've been scum in a row. So yeah within the game you have the same chance as anyone else to get a certain role (supposedly) but if you take into account past games, how likely would it be to end up as scum 15 games in a row? Not that it matters either way really as it's still a pretty bad reason to vote/defend someone, just throwing that out there. :steiner
A common misconception. You can't use whether someone was scum in a past game as evidence they may be scum now. Trust a qualified Mathematician. Yes someone is unlikely to be scum 15 times in a row but that doesn't mean that if you get to the point when someone has been scum the past 14 games that they're any more/less likely to be scum a 15th time.
It's like saying you've lost 14 times in a row on a 1 in 3 shot on roulette so you're 'due' a win, or saying you're on a 'losing' streak so you're bound to lose again. Your odds are still 1 in 3. There is no need to consider what has happened in previous spins, that shit can lose you a whole lot of money.
So yeah what i'm getting at is if LC had been scum 14 times in a row before this we'd still have to treat her like anyone else (although I suspect she'd be lynched super quick anyway)