posting this here, so its out of the game thread but
Originally Posted by Mr. Fluffykins
Big Man: Mafia
Mikey Damage: Alive
Original predictions were semi right
18 people have died, 8 town, 10 scum. now 10 people are left, say 2-3 scum thats ~13 scum/15 town. If you had randomly guessed you should still hit a higher % than that.
That annoys me when people post a list early in the game and hit a couple of scum. Random guessing in games with a high level of scum should allow you to hit ~40% easy. Its not scum hunting, and its not being good. Its just maths essentially.