[Punked Up]

Originally Posted by Headliner

^Wait, someone actually thinks Romney can win the election?

Easily. Even after the convention bump Romney is still easily in winnable territory. This is not a 2008 situation on our hands here.

What makes you think Romney will definately lose? I'm open for a discussion.

[Gang]

Originally Posted by Headliner

^Wait, someone actually thinks Romney can win the election?

Why not?

[scrilla]

lol you're right it's not. at this time in 2008 the polls were much closer.

[Punked Up]

Originally Posted by scrilla

lol you're right it's not. at this time in 2008 the polls were much closer.

You don't follow politics very much, do you? At this time in 2008 Obama had 234 electoral votes definately in his favour, now he has about 190. Obama was also in a much better position in Ohio, where Romney has now gained 9% in pollsin 4 months. Obama literally only needed to win states he was predicted to win, in fact he would've had to lose some to make it close. The election was a landslide with McCain winning 7 of 9 swingstates, or something like that. Florida is now considered a reach for Obama, whereas last year he was leading narrowly in the polls at this point. If Romney takes Florida and Ohio you can consider the election over, all he'd need is one of the 4 western states up for grabs, most of which he's in good position, especially Iowa.

Furthermore, although Obama is very good in debates, you can count on him not embarrasing Romney like he did McCain, and Romney will not literally support Obama like McCain did. Couple that with a VP pick much more competent than Sarah Palin, poor jobs numbers, an out of touch Obama team and the fact that Romney has barely started campaiging yet, I'd say Romney has a decent chance. Definite? Hell no, but I'd say the evidence is clearuy there to support my prediction.

[kobra860]

Originally Posted by Punked Up

I think Romney is likely to make some unpopular decisions but the big issues (i.e., debt, unemployment and defense) will be taken care of, also, we'll most likely see a lot more domestic energy used (possibly at the expense of the enviroment). Obama will be better on Gay Marriage, but that's about it. He potters around on so many issues that he never gets the big things done, and no budget passed in 4 years is more than derpressing, it's incredibly worrisome. Gary Johnson would do good things, but he has no chance so I give my vote to Romney easily.

My prediction is a 277-261 Romney win. Romney should abandon Ohio and win all the western states he can. Obama "saved" the auto industry, he has Ohio.

Romney has no chance of winning. He's alienated most of the female voters which will be his downfall.

[Headliner]

He's not getting the poor people vote, or the majority of the middle class vote either.

[scrilla]

I don't play the imaginary electoral board game. in September 2008 McCain and Obama were basically polling even. I'm actually pretty sure that on this date in 2008 McCain was ahead in the polls although that was b/c the RNC was after the DNC. either way it's not as close as it was then. Obama widening the gap EARLY much like he did to McCain as it went on.

[Punked Up]

Originally Posted by scrilla

I don't play the imaginary electoral board game. in September 2008 McCain and Obama were basically polling even. I'm actually pretty sure that on this date in 2008 McCain was ahead in the polls although that was b/c the RNC was after the DNC. either way it's not as close as it was then. Obama widening the gap EARLY much like he did to McCain as it went on.

- The electoral board is not imaginary, it's the way the president is elected. Polling in the states specifically is just as accurate, if not more than these broad polls. Also, they give us an idea of who will win more electoral votes. In no way imaginary. You see, in the popular vote Obama won by only 2%, but he won in a landslide because of the electoral system. So, they may have been polling even in the pop. vote, but it was clear by now that Obama was winning and Obama was winning big.

- Obama is by no means "widening the gap", it's as close as ever. It is a challenge for Romney to win but it is well within the realm of possibility. In fact, 270towin.com is predicting a Romney win, and the NY times has them at even at this moment in time. You can garuntee that with the $10 million checks and endless bank account Romney has he will start campaigning hard. Romney has much more resources than Obama, and after the embarrasment that was the DNC, he has no shortage of material. Please, humor me and allow me to play the "imaginary board game":

Reaction to Romney has been strong in Iowa, he is gaining ground consistently in Ohio, Florida is going Romney and most likely VA as well. With those states, many predict Romney would need 1 or 2 more of 5-6 western state, where polling is basically even. If he gets Ohio, where his gains have plataued but is still very close, even after he was behind 10 points just months ago, then you can basically call the election his. Again, I'd say for natural reasons and a good chance in Ohio Obama is the favorite, but it's very possible. Also, I don't know if it matters to you, but I'm throwing some rep your way for keeping the argument clean (a rare sight on forums).

[Punked Up]

Originally Posted by kobra860

Romney has no chance of winning. He's alienated most of the female voters which will be his downfall.

I think Ann Romney saves him here. Reaction to her was apparently better than Michelle and very good. He won't get the majority but a good amount will be swayed IMO.

[scrilla]

#fantasypolitics