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post #1049 of (permalink) Old 11-06-2012, 06:14 AM
El Barto
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Re: Poll - Obama (D) vs Romney (R) - Vote

3 Things To Keep In Mind Today...

1. The moron political pundits on the cable news channels will probably make a big deal about likely exit polling data showing Romney winning Independents. Who wins “Independents” is a meaningless data point now. A huge percentage of Republicans stopped calling themselves Republicans after the George W. Bush years and now call themselves Independents, even though they still vote Republican. Because of this, Romney will likely win Independents, but this is also why Democrats outnumber Republicans. See why the entire debate over party ID in polls being “bias” against Republicans has been so dubious? It all depends on how effective pollsters are at getting “Independents” who are really lifelong Republicans to actually admit they are Republican. The polls that do will show a higher percentage of Republicans, but will show Obama doing better with Independents. The polls that don’t will show a lower percentage of Republicans, but will show Romney doing better with Independents. It’s just two different names for the same thing.

2. The pundits will also probably make a big deal about the first results that come in for particular states. In some states, like the ones with early voting, Obama will probably start out in the lead since those early voting returns will come in first. In other states, Republican counties tend to report first, while big urban cities (which are usually Democratic) come in later, meaning Romney could have leads in states he will go on to lose (or vice-versa).

3. Drudge and other political sites will begin tossing around “leaked” exit polling data this afternoon. These “leaked” numbers are usually completely wrong, just ask President Kerry. Wait until the major networks begin releasing exit polling data, that data is usually fairly accurate (though the network exit polling has been off before too). Of course, the TV pundits will almost surely misrepresent and completely misunderstand what the exit polling data really is saying, but that’s a general problem with the crappyness of our TV news coverage that isn’t going to be fixed anytime soon.

taken from http://nowecantpolitics.com/?p=1340

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